1. Jets
2. Vikings
3. Packers
4. Eagles
5. 49ers
6. Steelers
7. Ravens
8. Cowboys
9. Saints
10. Chargers
11. Bengals
12. Giants
13. Broncos
14. Colts
15. Patriots
16. Bears
17. Texans
18. Dolphins
19. Bills
20. Jaguars

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense.  I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy).  Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them.  My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL.  None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense.  The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense.  Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct.  Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points.  However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP.  Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for.  Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

1. Nate Kaeding
2. Mason Crosby
3. Ryan Longwell
4. Garrett Hartley
5. Stephen Gostkowski
6. David Akers
7. Rob Bironas
8. Matt Prater
9. Robbie Gould
10. Lawrence Tynes
11. Jay Feely
12. Shayne Graham
13. Jeff Reed
14. Dan Carpenter
15. Matt Bryant
16. Neil Rackers
17. Rian Lindell
18. Joe Nedney
19. Olindo Mare
20. Ryan Succop

1. Antonio Gates
2. Dallas Clark
3. Jermichael Finley
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jason Witten
6. Brent Celek
7. Tony Gonzalez
8. Zach Miller
9. Owen Daniels
10. Kellen Winslow
11. Visanthe Shiancoe
12. Dustin Keller
13. Chris Cooley
14. John Carlson
15. Anthony Fasano
16. Heath Miller
17. Kevin Boss
18. Todd Heap
19. Rob Gronkowski
20. Benjamin Watson
21. Tony Scheffler
22. Bo Scaife
23. Brandon Pettigrew
24. Jermaine Gresham
25. Fred Davis
26. Shawn Nelson
27. Marcedes Lewis
28. Brandon Pettigrew
29. Dennis Pitta
30. Jared Cook

The Top Two

Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates are in a class of their own.  No matter who you put at number one, you acknowledge that there is a large gap between these two guys and the rest of the pack.  When you draft Gates or Clark you are essentially drafting a very consistent WR.  With Vincent Jackson missing extensive time and probably never playing in a Chargers uniform again, the only reliable and trusted target Philip Rivers has left at his disposal is Gates.  Both Clark and Gates are likely to get close to 100 catches and 10 TD’s.

The Next Three

Lacking a clever name to call my tier two group of right ends is not the only problem that I have with this group of guys.  Jermichael Finley is an unproven guy that many people, including me, think will have a year similar to Clark and Gates.  In the preseason the Packers have been an explosive offense, and stout defense.  The Packers use Finley often as he truly is a matchup nightmare, he is too big for 95% of defensive backs to cover and too fast for almost any linebackers to cover.  Vernon Davis had a huge year last year, but primarily because of touchdowns and you just can’t count on him getting 10 TDs again.  Witten had a off year last season and should rebound fine, but until I see that the Cowboys can reliably protect Romo in the pocket he is stuck at number 5 on my rankings.

The Last of The Starters

Rounding out my top 10 is the traditional tight ends.  These guys are on bad teams, have young QB’s or have mediocre talent and a good team/QB.  Brent Celek falls under the new QB category.  There will be times this year that Kevin Kolb struggles, or is in need of a check down and he will be turning to Celek more often than not.  It is also worth noting that Celek and Kolb are friends off the field and roommates when on the road so they should be a solid level of trust and comfort with each other.  Zach Miller is hands down the most consistent receiving threat that the Raiders have and after a considerable upgrade at QB I expect Miller to have a career year.  Owen Daniels was in the 2nd tier last year and started very strong, however due to an injury he missed most of the season and it will take a little time for him to be back to his old self.  The inevitable slow start is why he is ranked at 9th, but he could be a top 5 guy come the end of the year.

The Best of The Rest

Rounding out the starters in deep formats and the backups is a hodgepodge of inconsistent big guys that are often on run-first teams.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a serious threat in the red zone that was often used by Brett Favre last year.  Brett cannot replicate the production of last season, but he will still get his share of passing TDs and so will Shiancoe.  Chris Cooley is another guy that was hurt last year and he is on a team with a poor receiving corp, offensive line and a quality QB that can get him the ball.  Cooley represents the best value TE this year and getting either him or Zach Miller is the reason why I let all the top guys go off the board and stack up on WR and RB talent.

Sleepers

Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson and Anthony Fasano

Busts

Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen and Todd Heap

Recap

If either Gates or Clark falls to you in the 5th round and you don’t like any options left at WR RB or QB then do it!  You will be getting to start an extra WR every week.  If not, then wait for Zach Miller or Chris Cooley late in the draft.  The fact that guys like John Carlson, Anthony Fasano, Heath Miller and Todd Heap should go un-drafted is pretty ridiculous in my opinion.  Oh, and don’t take a backup… the guys I just mentioned can be gotten off waivers to cover your main guy’s bye week.

4th Down Syndrome

Multiple Scorgasms

Romosexual Tendencies

My Vick in a Box

Steave Breastonlargement

Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe

Skittles, Taste Dwayne Bowe

BP Oilers

Henne-nut Cherios

Body By Mangini

JaMarcus NoHustle

Jamarcus Russel Cholesterol Tussle

Chris Henry Too Soons?

Slob on My Kolb

LeFevour for More Cowbell

She Said No Ben.

Please help me expand on the list in the comments!

1. Andre Johnson
2. Randy Moss
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Miles Austin
5. Roddy White
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Brandon Marshall
8. Larry Fitzgerald
9. Greg Jennings
10. DeSean Jackson
11. Marques Colston
12. Anquan Boldin
13. Steve Smith (Car)
14. Mike Sims-Walker
15. Wes Welker
16. Michael Crabtree
17. Steve Smith (NYG)
18. Dwayne Bowe
19. Pierre Garcon
20. Chad Ochocinco
21. Donald Driver
22. Percy Harvin
23. Hines Ward
24. Hakeem Nicks
25. Jeremy Maclin
26. Mike Wallace
27. Santana Moss
28. Vincent Jackson
29. Malcom Floyd
30. Johnny Knox
31. Santonio Holmes
32. Devin Aromashadu
33. Kenny Britt
34. Sidney Rice
35. Bernard Berrian
36. TJ Houshmandzadeh
37. Braylon Edwards
38. Terrell Owens
39. Robert Meachem
40. Lee Evans
41. James Jones
42. Jacoby Jones
43. Dez Bryant
44. Jerricho Cotchery
45. Steve Breaston
46. Legedu Naanee
47. Derrick Mason
48. Mike Willams (TB)
49. Mohammed Massaquoi
50. Eddie Royal

The Top 5

If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1.  Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage.  Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them.  He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play.  You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs.  With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year.  He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out.  Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.

The Second Tier

My 2nd tier of  wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency.  At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion.  That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson.  We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor.  Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely.  If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year.  Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be.  Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss.  You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format.  Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year.  Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him.  Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today.  DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason.  He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball.  Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy.  It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.

Second, Third and Flex Receivers

So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine.  With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career.  We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it.  He is incredibly talented.  Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year.  Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense.  We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent.  Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents.  Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.

Spot Fillers and Sleepers

In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season.  Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension.  Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended.  Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian.  Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.

Sleepers

Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)

Busts

Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston

Recap

You definitely will need an elite WR this year.  Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches.  I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Frank Gore
5. Ray Rice
6. Michael Turner
7. Steven Jackson
8. DeAngelo Williams
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Shonn Greene
11. Jamaal Charles
12. Ryan Grant
13. Cedric Benson
14. Ryan Mathews
15. Pierre Thomas
16. LeSean McCoy
17. Beanie Wells
18. Jahvid Best
19. Jonathan Stewart
20. Joseph Addai
21. Knowshon Moreno
22. Ronnie Brown
23. Matt Forte
24. Arian Foster
25. Felix Jones
26. Ahmad Bradshaw
27. Fred Jackson
28. Justin Forsett
29. CJ Spiller
30. Jerome Harrison
31. Ricky Williams
32. Clinton Portis
33. Reggie Bush
34. Marion Barber
35. Michael Bush
36. Brandon Jacobs
37. Carnell Williams
38. LaDainian Tomlinson
39. Donald Brown
40. Thomas Jones
41. Chester Taylor
42. Montario Hardesty
43. Darren Sproles
44. Tim Hightower
45. Darren McFadden
46. Steve Slaton
47. Laurence Maroney
48. Fred Taylor
49. Kareem Huggins
50. Marshawn Lynch

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.