This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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Well, week 3 of the preseason is where we get the best look at the fantasy players from each team (if healthy) before the season.  And while many people don’t like to use the preseason to impact their rankings, I feel this week is one of the best indicators you can find before your draft.

Packers vs. Colts

Well this was a hell of a game to watch.  You usually don’t get to see quite so many sparks fly in the preseason, but with these two high powered offenses playing for around 3 quarters… It was bound to be a fun one to see.  Since all the insanity with Favre and now Sidney Rice being out half the year I have to think the Packers are now the favorite to win their division.  Rodgers looks like an MVP candidate so far, and Jennings has been much more active in the passing game than last year. He (Jennings) could rack up 1400 yards and 10 TDs no problem this year.

As for the Colts, no need to be concerned.  They had some rough spots caused by, what seemed to me, deliberately pushing the limits of the new ball spotting system.  I hope that the Reggie Wayne doubters have been paying attention, because I think he has had a VERY strong preseason and he will remain my number 3 WR.  Garcon has done a good job separating himself from Collie and Gonzalez and in doing so he earned a bump in my rankings.  Also I am starting to have some concerns about Addai.  He is in a contract year, and the Colts drafted Donald Brown for a reason.  I think if Addai misses just one game he will lose his job permanently to Brown.  The Colts will not want to pay to re-sign a back in his decline.

Cowboys vs. Texans

It is no surprise that the offensive line is the biggest area of concern for the Cowboys offense this year, but even so, Romo spent too much time on his back this week.  If they play this poorly during the season Romo will not be able to stay healthy.  Austin and Witten will maintain their production through these issues, but I am concerned for Felix Jones who seems to get injured a lot as is.

Arian Foster became the first Houston Texan to break 100 yards rushing in a preseason game this week and moved up quite a bit in my ranks as it is becoming clear he will see the vast majority of the carries.  Seeing Slaton back to return kicks shows that they don’t intend to use him like they used to by any means.  Jacoby Jones also had a strong showing in this game, helping his cause for becoming the #2 guy over Kevin Walter.

Bears vs. Cardinals

So far this preseason we really hadn’t seen a glimpse of last year’s Jay Cutler, until this week that is.  The bottom line is with this guy, is he is a gunslinger that makes some bad choices.  You need to expect around 20 interceptions from Cutler this year but you can also expect 30 TDs and around 4,000 yards.  Johnny Knox and Chester Taylor both looked very strong in this game as well but I don’t quite give anyone a bump in the rankings.

Oh Arizona… I thought you were finally going to be a good team, but now there are rumors flying around about them trading away Matt Leinart or cutting him altogether.  It is definitely time to downgrade all the Cardinals in our rankings. Beanie Wells can’t be productive in an inconsistent offense that can’t convert on third downs and between the injury and the QB situation I am afraid that Fitzgerald will have a very bad season (at least by his standards).  Tim Hightower is falling too far in the drafts that I have seen, he will still be their third down guy and if he is hot they will certainly not be afraid to let him get some carries.

Chiefs vs Eagles

First thing first, Jamaal Charles is fine, no worries for fantasy owners here.  He is not supposed to miss any time in the regular season.  After he left the game Thomas Jones did a great job filling in for him, but I still think he will be inconsistent behind a worse offensive line and might actually be more productive as the number 2 with fewer carries and hits taken.  It was good to see Dwayne Bowe get involved a bit more too, he remains a sleeper of mine for the middle rounds.

I remain convinced that the success of the Eagles offense hinges on DeSean Jackson.  So, it was not much of a surprise to me that they did not do well without him after he left very early.  As with Charles, no concern here for fantasy owners… he will be back by week 1.  LeSean McCoy ran well, but did not see a lot of carries.  No adjustments to my rankings for any of these guys.

Other Notable Performances

LaDainian Tomlinson – Gotta start calling him a sleeper.  Watching Hard Knocks may be tainting my reaction here, but I just keep hearing Rex Ryan say “I love being right”.

Pierre Thomas

Reggie Bush

Joe Flacco

Frank Gore

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