Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day.  Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks.  I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown.  You can catch the QB ranks here.

The Top Two

When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed.  Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy.  Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game.  I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability.  It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other.  In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one.  I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.

The Rest of the Elite

Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.  My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day.  Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice.  Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees).  That lead was 47 points.  The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points!  After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up.  If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week.  Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.

The Best of the Rest

Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league.  My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco.  This guy is coming into his third year in the league.  It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time.  Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield.  Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them.  Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths.  Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game.  I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.

The Rest

If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world.  You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense.  Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger.  There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys.  Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year.  McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives.  He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions.  This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own.  I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points.  I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.

Sleepers

Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.

Busts

Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.

Recap

The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10.  If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s.  There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat.  There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.

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Week 2 of the preseason is in the books and fantasy football drafts are coming up rather quickly.  As the preseason continues we all carry on our search for sleepers in this years draft.

Eagles vs Bengals

Kolb continues to look strong through week 2, but most surprising to me so far is the involvement of DeSean Jackson in the intermediate passing game.  The primary reason for DJax not being a part of the elite group of receivers this year is that when McNabb left the team so did the deep ball.  Not entirely, but not many people throw long balls like Donovan.  Kolb has been making completions to Jackson over the middle and inside of 20 yards with much more frequency than McNabb did.  This won’t upgrade Jackson in my rankings but it will hold him firm at number 9 and removes a lot of the doubt I had about his consistency. I have yet to see much of anything from LeSean McCoy and I am starting to expect very little from him.  I recommend not taking the risk on McCoy on draft day, not when guys like Joseph Addai and Ronnie Brown should still be available in the next round.

My dislike for Carson Palmer is still growing after this last game.  2 interceptions and a bad decision that got his star receiver leveled in a preseason game.  Good judgment.  Also, there is a lot of talk about how well T.O. has done thus far.  They are trying to get the fan base excited and as much as the fans may love 85, they won’t get excited about him catching balls in the preseason.  My expectations for T.O. are for him to be marginally better than last season.  Someone will be reaching for him on draft day, don’t let it be you.  Lastly, I want to point out that Bernard Scott should never go undrafted this year (except for maybe 8 team leagues).  He has performed well whenever given that chance and with Benson being such a workhorse he is bound to miss a game or two.

Redskins vs Ravens

Even though the ‘Skins were only able to put a field goal up on the board McNabb was able to demonstrate why players on this team will be fantasy-relevant again.  Throughout his time in the game McNabb was able to use his play-making ability to extend drives and keep the defense rested.  Being able to convert on third and long allows Portis to get more carries and receivers to get more catches and yards as well.  McNabb allows this team to have more offensive plays in a game than Campbell or any other option available to them.

The Ravens looked flat this week, even with Ray Rice on the field.  I am certainly not concerned about Flacco as the Redskins were among the better pass defenses in the league last year and they were a much worse team then they are now.  The only player on the Ravens that I do have concerns about is Derrick Mason. He has been hobbled by leg injuries through camp, is getting older and saw only one target on Thursday.  Flacco has a new toy to play with and he is good enough to make him forget that Mason is still on the field.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Henne is a great backup option for you this year.  I think he will develop into a top 10 QB by the end of the season, but there could be some growing pains early.  There weren’t any this week however… The Dolphins offense looked very strong and even incorporated Brandon Marshall quite nicely.  Look for Anthony Fasano in the late rounds if you really want a backup TE.  If anyone has the chance to do what Celek did last year, its this guy right here.

David Garrard was having a pretty good night before he got hurt and was pulled out of the exhibition game.  I have seen very little about his injury since it happened which leads me to think it is minor.  He has just enough skill to make Mike Sims-Walker a WR2 or flex play but Maurice Jones-Drew will remain the star of this offense.

Bears vs Raiders

We saw some good things from the Bears this week.  Forte had a nice TD run of 89 yards, which is a great example of how a Mike Martz offense creates holes in the opposing defense.  Cutler had a solid outing, no interceptions as well as finding Johnny Knox in the end zone in the second quarter.

The Raiders played good, solid football in all three phases of the game this week and won the game because of it.  This is a sign of good coaching and a franchise on its way back to prominence.  Not yet though, because there is not one receiver that can be relied on week-to-week.

Other Week 2 one-liners

Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are not to be taken lightly, they will perform in Vincent Jackson’s absence.

Ryan Mathews should be a consistent performing RB2.

The Cowboys will have a few bad offensive games until they solidify their offensive line.

Miles Austin will produce consistently anyway.

Thomas Jones – 3.63 YPC and a fumble, Jamaal Charles 5 YPC and 23 yards receiving… Stop drafting Thomas Jones above round 8 or 9.

Mike Williams should be drafted in a 12 team league.

Arrelious Benn should not be.

Hasselbeck has something left in the tank, but it’s not what it used to be.

Aaron Rodgers really should be everyone’s number 1 ranked Quarterback.

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I hope you are all as excited as I am that there is live football on TV again.  After each week of the regular season comes to a close I will discuss the Fantasy Football relevant news from the week.  Lets get started since week two is underway!

Ravens vs Panthers

This was not a confidence building game for the Ravens and their fans.  Flacco performed admirably without Ray Rice in the backfield to provide the balance that will make them so dangerous.  His absence also allowed the panthers secondary to focus on Boldin and keep him in check.  What this game taught me was that the Ravens need to have all the peices of the puzzle in place in order to be an elite offense.

On the other side of the ball I hoped we would start to see the emergence of a number two receiver for Matt Moore, but both Dwayne Jarrett and Bradon LaFell showed me nothing.  There was a nice 23 yard run by DeAngelo Williams, but with no Steve Smith in the game and as little time as we saw Matt Moore it is too early to judge this offense.

Raiders vs Cowboys

The one question i kept asking myself over and over after this game was “Is Heyward-Bey in some sort of witness protection program?” Seriously, considering what the Raiders gave up for this kid he has to start producing and fast to erase the memory of last year (9 receptions for 124 yards and 1 TD… embarrassing).  I thought Michael Bush looked mediocre at best and I  would hope to see that turn around in the preseason before I targeted him on draft day.  I still don’t see how people can pick this team to make a surprise playoff run until one of their receivers steps up to give that offense a vertical threat.

I have enjoyed watching Romo get back to his old buddy Miles Austin early and often this preseason.  There are serious question marks on the offensive line right now, but by using the playaction and letting Romo move out of the pocket some they should continue with the same level of production.  I expect Jason Witten to return to an elite fantasy TE this year as he is an incredible red zone target.

Bills vs Redskins

The Bills saw injuries to both Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson in Week 1 leaving all the first team reps to go to CJ Spiller.  If he can capitalize on these reps and produce throughout the rest of the preseason he will keep climbing in my rankings.  Last nights week 2 game was a great start at catching up to Jackson for Buffalo’s top ranked fantasy RB.

Gotta love McNabb, despite all the challenges of changing teams after so long in one system he came out and delivered in the limited time he was on the field.  He will be the Redskins biggest offensive playmaker and if you are waiting as long as I am this year to draft a QB (and you miss out on Flacco) then McNabb may just be a bargain for the price.  I am starting to tone down my love of Devin Thomas as a really late round pick as he just did not look natural catching the ball from McNabb or kick/punt returns.  And lastly, Clinton Portis looked strong out of the backfield and is climbing in my rankings.

Eagles vs Jaguars

I was very interested in how Kolb would do in this game.  The Jags do not have the most solid pass defense in the league and I really wanted to see him able to find the open guy and move them down the field.  He sure did that.  His first pass was to DeSean Jackson on a slant pattern he took for 20 yards.  He later connected on two deep balls, one a piece to DJax and Jeremy Maclin. The play I liked seeing the most was his scramble to pick up a key conversion on 3rd and 5 to extend a drive and get points on the board.

The Jaguars looked terrible, MJD is definitely the number three back and Mike Sims-Walker has value in the middle rounds, but David Garrard is why none of these players will be able to fulfill their potential this year.

Browns vs Packers

It feels funny not typing something bad about the Browns these days… But Jerome Harrison found the endzone and Delhomme went 6/7 and 60 yards.  They didn’t play long and couldn’t sustain that type of success against that defense.  But for fantasy we don’t need them to to have value.  I am more confident grabbing Harrison now than I was before I watched them march down the field against the Packers.

Ryan Grant gave me quite a scare with his fumble and mild concussion, however he is back at practice and won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  No reason to lower him at all in the rankings, he is already a great bargain.  Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings sure looked in sync with each other and raise expectations a bit.  The battle for my number 10 WR this year is getting pretty fierce between Jennings and Marques Colston.

Chargers vs Bears

Phillip Rivers is the key to the success of this team.  After watching this game Vincent Jackson must be disappointed because the Chargers were able to move the ball just fine through the air.  Malcom Floyd is going to do just fine as a deep threat and Legedu Naanee is certainly eligible for sleeper status now.  Rookie Ryan Mathews looked good in this game as well, performing as I would expect from a 2nd round fantasy RB.

Johnny Knox is clearly winning the number one job in this offense.  His vertical speed is the perfect fit for this offense, but I am keeping Aromashodu above Knox in my rankings since he makes for a better red zone target.

Other players who had notable outings in week 1:

Eddie Royal

Calvin Johnson

Cadillac Williams

Mike Williams (TB)

Matt Schaub

Victor Cruz

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The Seahawks are a team in transition.  They are about to need to replace Matt Hasselbeck and they just made a trade for Charlie Whitehurst on draft day this year.  Whitehurst looked great in week one of the preseason and is said to have the opportunity to win the starting job this year.  I don’t buy that at all.  Even with a new coaching staff in place the job is Hasselbeck’s until the playoffs gets out of reach.  In the past few years the Seahawks have been quite active making moves and signing free agent talent.  But after a very forgettable one year stint for Coach Mora it became clear that they needed to go back to the drawing board.  Julius Jones remains the coaches favorite at running back with the new administration, much to the chagrin of fantasy owners like me who love Justin Forsett.  What frustrates me the most is that these coaches are clearly not watching any GAME film and are too focused on practice.  To end last season Forsett was the only guy that could get ANYTHING done.  Do not expect much from any Seahawks this year, but you should be able to get both Forsett and Houshmandzadeh at a pretty good  deal.

Top Fantasy Players

Justin Forsett – The most talented player on the team, not a great team but good enough that Forsett would be higher than 26th in my rankings if the coaches weren’t in love with Julius Jones for no reason at all.

TJ Houshmandzadeh – Last year was pretty disappointing, but Nate Burleson can’t take all them targets from him, so he should rebound pretty well this year if they get quality play from their line and QB.

Matt Hasselbeck – Once he was a great player, I think his time in this league has reached an end.  I expect Whitehurst to be starting by the end of the season and Hasselbeck’s retirement to come early in the off season.  Don’t draft him… even in a 2 QB format.

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