This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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Kurt Warner will be missed, he brought this team out of the gutter and into the Super Bowl; He will always have a special place in the heart of Cardinals fans.  Now it is time for Matt Leinart to extend the winning tradition past the time of the future hall of famer.  There is no shortage of offensive weapons at the new guy’s disposal so it is up to him to live up to the expectations now.  Despite the uncertainty at quarterback Larry Fitzgerald is still an elite fantasy wide receiver on draft day only behind Johnson, Moss and Austin in my most recent WR rankings.  Beanie Wells got a fair bit of work in week one of the preseason and looked good, not great.  I still think the offense will find a rhythm and Beanie will do just fine.  Personally, I am not a big Matt Leinart fan.  I wish him well and hope he succeeds, but I there is a reason he lost the job to Warner.  Stay away on draft day unless you want to be disappointed.

Larry Fitzgerald – What can you say about this guy that hasn’t already been said? Nothing.  I do like Austin a bit more, mostly because of the stability of the guy throwing the ball.  However, he should produce just fine.

Beanie Wells – I think he is a down right steal if he falls to the 3rd round.  Wells will separate himself from Hightower as the lead back before long and I think he will end up a top 10 fantasy RB by the end of the season.

Early Doucet – Someone will need to fill in for Boldin if Leinart is able to run a pass-first offense.  Doucet will be that guy, but since it all hinges on Leinart you can get this guy in the last few rounds of your draft.

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Round One
Pick 1 (1) – Chris Johnson: CJ has an absurd mix of power and speed that makes him a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  A guy his size and speed should have trouble between the tackles, but as he proved last season he does not.

Pick 2 (2) – Adrian Peterson: The emergence of Chris Johnson is not why I rank Peterson at number two.  Peterson is in my opinion the most complete running back in the league, but has had some issues with fumbles and is seeing fewer touchdowns with Favre pulling the trigger.

Pick 3 (3) – Maurice Jones-Drew: MJD has a similar skill set to Johnson, but has a bit of trouble running up the middle.  He is a very capable goal line back due to his elusiveness, but does not have the supporting cast to have a breakout year.

Pick 4 (4) – Frank Gore: The Niners had an excellent draft, they appear to be lining up behind Alex Smith and opted to bolster their offensive line in a big way with Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati.  Iupati is one of the most athletic guards I have seen come out of college in a while and will do an excellent job pulling to seal the corner for Gore this year.  The Niners also appear to have rededicated themselves to a physical smash mouth style that matches their coach Mike Singletary.

Pick 5 (5) – Ray Rice: This guy came out of nowhere, and I do not expect him to be the next Matt Forte at all.  Until draft day Rice was my number four back.  After adding a deep threat and much needed talent at the WR position with Anquan Boldin, the Ravens ensured that they will still see consistent production from Rice.  It will be exceedingly difficult to stack eight in the box to stop this guy.

Pick 6 (6) – Michael Turner: Turner has dropped a fair few spots from last season, but it has little to do with him.  The emergence of the 49ers and Ravens on the offensive side of the ball are the primary reasons why Turner is not fourth on this list.  The injury at the end of last year certainly does not help, but I’m not going to downgrade him for it until he proves it was not an isolated incident.

Pick 7 (7) – Ronnie Brown: The Dolphins have a more balanced attack now with Marshall at wide receiver, but Henne is still unproven and the one-two punch of Brown Williams is still going to be the driving force of this offense.  Brown could see better productivity with a passing game to balance the defense.

Pick 8 (8) – Drew Brees: Yes, the Saints lost some talent on both sides of the ball, but regardless of the situation the only player that was always are the center of their success was Brees.  He repeatedly rallied the Saints whether it be the fourth quarter of a game, or after losing to the lowly Buccaneers, and then needing to make a playoff run.

Pick 9 (9) – Andre Johnson: The Texans have their issues, and it is impossible to know what Coach Kubiak is thinking when he puts Arian Foster or Ryan Moats on the field instead of Steve Slaton.  With that said they are a playoff caliber team with a very efficient passing game.  Johnson is the most consistent receiver in fantasy football.

Pick 10 (10) – DeAngelo Williams: With the question at quarter back and the best tandem of running backs in the league to lean on you can expect the Panthers to do just that.  Use the talent at the Running Back position to develop either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen into their Quarterback of the future.

Pick 11 (11) – Steven Jackson: He may be on the decline, but during a 1-15 season Jackson played through injury and was there for every game giving all the effort he had.  He can still be my  first round pick without a doubt.

Pick 12 (12) – Rashard Mendenhall: It is worth noting that the option of taking Reggie Wayne and Peyton Manning was available, but you cannot snub the RB position like that with the last pick. Mendenhall is likely to see an increased workload during Big Ben’s suspension, and he will remain the feature back the rest of the season.

Round 2
Pick 13 (12) – Reggie Wayne: This is the only wide receiver on the best passing offense in the AFC that we know their spot on the depth chart.  Whether Gonzalez or Garcon gets the number two job is still unknown and very possibly subject to change.  Wayne has been with Manning for a long time and has developed into an elite receiver.

Pick 14 (11) – Aaron Rodgers: If you’re scratching your head, then you need to look at the stats from the last two seasons.  Rodgers is likely going to be the highest scoring fantasy QB this season, but Brees is likely to have more passing yards.

Pick 15 (10) – Peyton Manning: Comes down to Moss or Manning here, and with Brady and the Patriots on the decline, Manning is the safe pick and the right one here.

Pick 16 (9) – Ryan Grant: Not taking a running back in the first round means you have to take the best one available to you in the second.

Pick 17 (8) – Cedric Benson: Carson Palmer finally has the best receiving core of his career, and he can’t use it because his career is over.  Benson will see 30 carries a game this year just like last year, as long as he is healthy.

Pick 18 (7) – Randy Moss: Despite his teams fall from the elite, they are still a Playoff quality team with great coaching, and more than enough experience to make a deep playoff run.

Pick 19 (6) – Pierre Thomas: Bush will never be an every down back, and Bell is not there to vulture red zone touches.

Pick 20 (5) – Miles Austin: Austin’s productivity was among the best last season, and considering he did not even start until week 5.  I would hardly be surprised if Austin ended up the top fantasy WR by the end of the season.

Pick 21 (4) – Shonn Greene: The Jets showed that they trust and believe in this young guy the way they used him in the playoffs.  Since Rex Ryan has yet to make a decision that didn’t work out for him, I am going to trust him.

Pick 22 (3) – Tom Brady: Brady has not fallen off.  It took a little to recover from his season long injury, but he’s back.  The difference is the team around him is not as good as it has been.

Pick 23 (2) – Larry Fitzgerald: Larry is still the most talented wide receiver in the league, and it only takes one play for a receiver to have a good day for you.  Fitz will remain a red zone matchup nightmare.

Pick 24 (1) – Joseph Addai: Towards the end of his career, but not there yet.  He will not have quite the year he did last year but he should be close.

Round 3
Pick 25 (1) – Vincent Jackson
Pick 26 (2) – Phillip Rivers
Pick 27 (3) – Roddy White
Pick 28 (4) – Matt Schaub
Pick 29 (5) – Beanie Wells
Pick 30 (6) – Tony Romo
Pick 31 (7) – Jamaal Charles
Pick 32 (8) – Ryan Matthews
Pick 33 (9) – Clinton Portis
Pick 34 (10) – LeSean McCoy
Pick 35 (11) – Ricky Williams
Pick 36 (12) – Joe Flacco

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Love

Randy Moss (NE) – Jaguars allow the 6th most yards per game in the air, and Moss is coming off a good game against a really good secondary.  Moss is set to have a great game for your Super Bowl match-up.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) - Oh, what it must be like to have one of the hottest QB’s in the league go against the worst ranked passing defense in the league.  You’ve been looking at this match-up hoping it would be relevant, and if it is congrats!

Vincent Jackson (SD) – He has been an elite guy all year until his brief cold streak, and boy has he bounced back (Just in time to get you into the Super Bowl too).  The Titans passing defense has its wholes and has been burned by the big play all year, although less since they found an offense in week 6 or so.  Rivers loves his favorite target and should be set to have a big game this week.

Drew Brees (NO) - If there is any team you want to play after your first loss it’s the Bucs.  The Saints are going to let a little frustration out against this two win ball club.

Adrian Peterson (MIN) – He only had 35 rushing yards last week but with his long passing play in junk time he was able to get a very respectable fantasy total last week.  The Bears are not as good as the Panthers, and the Vikes have a chip on their shoulder with the media TOTALLY OVER-REACTING about a sideline conversation that was “heated” although for the life of me it looks like they are talking normally to me… We all need to remember these are two passionate guys trying to win a game… will they get carried away when talking to people? Yup! Do we all get carried away when discussing what we are passionate about? YUP!  With the hits that Favre took Peterson will get his chance to establish the run in order to slow the pass rush.

Frank Gore (SF) – The 49ers offense has been striving for balance lately and they have a really soft defense to practice on this week.  Anyone you have from the 9ers is worth a start and an upgrade from how you would normally use them.

Cedric Benson (CIN) - Jerome Harrison just had the third biggest rushing performance in NFL history and Benson had been one of the most often used backs in the league despite missing two games with an injury.  He is set to have a great game this week and could possibly top 200 yards himself.

Beanie Wells (ARI) – Wells broke a hundred yards last week and might well do it again as they face the terrible Rams.

Ryan Grant (GB) – Two weeks ago he had a breakout game, and last week he held his own against a very stout rush defense.  This week its the struggling Lions that might be without Stafford, which means that the offense wont even be able to allow their defense to rest.

Fred Jackson (BUF) - With the Bills turning their failed hopes and dreams to a new QB this week there is no downside here.  Either he is inconsistent and can’t often utilize all the offensive weapons, or Brian Brohm’s mobility helps him extend plays and make positives out of negatives.  Early in this game you have to expect them to try to get going on the ground.  This would help Brohm find a rhythm and get going at his own pace.  Freddie just eeked out a top 20 spot this week, or will have once my updated ranks come out  against the 20th ranked rushing defense allowing 118 yards per game!  (Oh and you faithful few actually reading during the very beginning… you remember? just read the Terrell Owens section)

Jason Snelling (ATL) – I don’t see Turner rushing back after a third straight ankle injury, so the guy that is proven to get the most carries in his absence is Snelling.  This Bills defense is the worst in the league against the run, and they are very picky through the air.  I don’t have any idea why you would drop back to pass unless you absolutely had to against the Bills.

Michael Crabtree (SF) - He’s been more and more a part of the offense since he came onto the team, and there will be plenty of yards to be shared this Sunday.

Steve Smith (CAR) - Ever since Matt Moore has started taking the snaps Smith has been relevant again.  All them INTs clearly had Delhomme too afraid to take a chance and let that stud

Brent Celek (PHI) – The Broncos have a strong enough defense that they can limit DeSean Jackson’s chances deep.  In order to do this they are going to have to drop 3 back deep almost every play and Celek should have a big day over the middle.

Vernon Davis (SF) – Davis is making a bid to be considered the top TE in football this season.  He’s among the top TD catchers in the league and is facing the Lions, gotta love it!

Hate

Visanthe Shaincoe – I’ve said it before, Bears linebackers are very good at covering TE’s.

Matt Ryan – Bills shut down Brady fantasy-wise.

Ray Rice – Tone down expectations given the match-up.

Rashard Mendenhall – Tone down expectations given the match-up.

Kyle Orton – I would have a tough time starting Orton this week with the ball hawks in the secondary for Philly.

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