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Question 1: Asked by @Steel_Thoughts

for 3rd place. Pick 2 to start (position doesn’t matter) S.Moss(@NYG), D.Thomas(NE), Mendenhall(@SF) or Spiller(MIA)?

Answer

I am starting Demaryius Thomas and Mendenhall in this situation.  I could see benching Mendenhall for Spiller but the Bills offense scares me at the moment and the only guy I trust is Stevie Johnson. Mendenhall has a tough match-up in front of him and he probably won’t make too much happen but all it takes is one big play on an outside run or a screen play and he’ll be fine for you.  Its a gut call on my part but Mendenhall is worth the risk here in my opinion.

Question 2: Asked by Connor

I need a TE for this week, preferably one that has a chance to get me more than three points. I currently own Heath Miller and have 2 options on free agency that stick out, Gresham and Celek.  Who has the best shot at a nice game this week?

Answer

I would go with Gresham here.  I think that regardless of match up he is the most ownable of the three and with St. Louis as an opponent this week he is likely to do just fine.  There is a concern that the receivers and backs will all be doing so well that they don’t need the TE but Gresham is Cinci’s best possession receiver at the moment and I don’t think they can afford to not use him.

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Before it gets too far away from the end of the 2010 NFL season, we should take a look back at a few players who either exceeded expectations or didn’t come close.  These players can make or break your draft next year as their former owners clamor for a chance to own their savior from last season again, or let them fall way too deep in the draft because of bitter feelings of resentment.  In order to be a good fantasy football player you have to have a short memory, but there are always a few nuggets of information worth remembering over the long-term:

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – He was a dud this past season and it is easy to think that he is getting old and no longer a factor.  I took a look at his production and found something worth noting, take a look for yourself:

Games with Matt Moore at QB

Games without Matt Moore at QB

*Matt Moore started but was knocked out due to injury in the first half.

Moore did not make the Panthers a better team by any stretch, but he clearly had a trust and connection with the only legitimate receiving threat that Carolina had last year.  I am not saying that he has much value going into next season, but the Panthers are very likely to go with a different QB next season and I do not blame Smith for his mediocre numbers. Smith could end up a gem if he can build chemistry with whoever is at Quarterback for the Panthers, so don’t be afraid to use a mid to late round pick on him at next years draft.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – What more can you ask for from the Chief’s stud running back, who burst on the scene last year? MORE CARRIES!  I have been on record saying that Todd Haley is an idiot, but it never hurts to say it again.  Charles averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry over the course of the season, which was highest in the NFL for all players who saw over 100 carries on the season. Charles was also 2^nd in total yards with 1,467, not far behind Arian Foster who had 1,616.  Even more impressively, he did it on just 230 carries (Foster had 327).  Thomas Jones was the other back involved in the league’s top rushing attack and despite having just a 3.7 YPC average Jones saw 15 more carries.  This was essentially a 50/50 timeshare, but look for Charles to get better every season from here on out.  Thomas Jones is aging quickly while Charles gains experience, he will be trusted to carry the ball more often. This guy is here to stay and I do not see his production dropping off even a little next year.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I was very surprised that the Chiefs made the playoffs this season and Dwayne Bowe was a big part of their success.  He started the season pretty poorly, with 152 yards and one TD in his first four games.  In weeks 6 and 7 he went up against two of the worst secondaries in the NFL and his production spiked with 189 yards and four TDs in those two weeks.  He went on a 7 game scoring streak recording 13 touchdowns during that timeframe.  Easily lost in these impressive stats is the trouble that Bowe had against quality defensive backs; In week 13 Bowe was held without a catch against an aging Champ Bailey and in week 8 against Buffalo, he had three catches for just 16 yards (though one of them was a TD).  Lastly, the team’s passing offense disappeared when Matt Cassel missed a game against the Chargers in week 14.  I don’t blame this on Bowe but for me to take a guy as my top wide receiver, I’d like to think he could get open at least ONCE for his backup QB.  All this points to Bowe having a lot of upside for next season, but it is not without risk.  Bowe is nothing more than a WR2 until he can produce more consistently, so don’t get caught paying too high a price to have him on your team next season.

Brent Celek, TE, PHI – Celek had a breakout season in 2009 when Donovan McNabb was at Quarterback for the Eagles and appeared to be a big part of their offense last season when Kevin Kolb was running the show.  Once Michael Vick took the starting job, Celek appeared to become an afterthought.  The fact is that with a mobile quarterback like Vick, the tight end will not be used as often as with a pocket passer… especially when the offensive line struggles as it did last year. The end of the season was better for Celek, but the big issue for me will be his consistency.  There might be more 10-reception games like in week 16 on the horizon, but I am much more concerned with how many 0-2 fantasy-point outings are waiting for his fantasy owners.  I think Celek has the skill to be a top-5 TE, but the situation looks to be a frustrating one for fantasy owners and you can find a better value at the position during next year’s draft.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – There was a lot of hype going into last year’s fantasy draft season about Shonn Greene being the lead guy for the Jets.  This was not the case, LT showed that he still has what it takes to be a dynamic playmaker and was pivotal to the early success that the Jets had.  Later in the year however, LT slowed down and made less of an impact.  LT might be getting old, but he still has the ability to make an impact in a supporting role.  He was used as the lead back most of the season and because of that he wore down and was not as effective a weapon late in the year.  If Rex Ryan hopes to get the most of LT deep into the playoffs he will need to lean much more heavily on Shonn Greene, which knocks LT out of my top 30 running backs for next season.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – Britt is my biggest sleeper pick for next year’s fantasy draft.  I am by no means alone in this, but there is good reason that so many people think he is about to explode… he already did.  Last season Britt started just 7 games and still managed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  This is an average of over 110 yards and 1.2 TDs per game.  These averages are slightly inflated due to a 225 yard 3 score game in week 7, but since when do we mind letting one player put up 40+ points with their backup QB?  Right now I see Britt as a top-15 receiver, but this all depends on how the Titans go about addressing their QB situation.  The Titans also have a new head coach, Mike Munchak, who was a 9 time pro-bowl offensive lineman and is sure to favor the ground game.  This actually bodes well for Britt however, because Chris Johnson will force defenders to bring an eighth into the box to contain him and severely limit their ability to double cover Britt.  I expect the Titans to look to add a veteran QB to their roster in an effort to give them a chance to win right out of the gates and if say, Donovan McNabb landed the job… the Titans would instantly have a playoff-caliber team.  All we really need now is a new CBA so that free agency can happen…

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Pickups

James Jones, WR, GB - If you are in a very competitive league with people that do their homework, Jones will not still be available.  He had a huge day filling in for Driver this week and if he can keep it up while Driver gets back to 100% it is entirely possible that Jones becomes the new #2 receiver for Rodgers and the Packers. Don’t let him remain unowned in your league for another day.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD - With Ryan Mathews leaving this game after re-aggravating the same injury that has been hampering him all season, it is easy to see a scenario where Tolbert takes the reins of this rushing offense and with him already getting the goal line carries he will be a top 20 RB if Mathews does miss time after the Chargers week 10 bye.

Mike Goodson, RB, CAR - Admittedly, you are going to need to be pretty desperate to pick up and start Goodson.  But, with DeAngelo Williams being out for 2 weeks in a row, Jonathan Stewart leaving this game with a concussion and Tyrell Sutton unable to finish the game either… Goodson could see 20 plus carries next week if Williams is not able to go.

Nate Burleson, WR, DET - This may all be a waste since Stafford is hurt again and has been the reason that Burleson has value.  But, if you are in a PPR league you should go for it anyways.  Calvin Johnson runs the deep routes all game and Burleson handles all of the possession routes.  In standard formats you should watch to see if Stafford is going to be OK before making a move on Burleson.

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Anyone who thought Brett Favre was done was mistaken.  There is no quit in that senior citizen and that is demonstrated by him putting up a career-high 446 passing yards in a tough overtime victory over the struggling Cardinals.  This value will only hold until Sidney Rice returns and that could be as soon as this week.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU - With a game coming up against the Jaguars, who can’t cover receivers to save their lives, Jones is a sleeper pick for Week 10.  Jones is a big, physical receiver much like Andre Johnson and this is one of the only weeks left on the schedule that is favorable for the Texans passing attack.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG - The Giants are an incredibly streaky team that goes from looking like an elite Super Bowl contender to looking inept on both sides of the ball.  For now, they look more like one of the best teams in the NFC and with a game against the Cowboys coming up in week 10, all their receiving threats get a significant upgrade in the rankings this week.  Manningham should be able to cover for you as a flex play this week if your having injury or bye-week issues.

Mike Thomas, WR, JAC - Thomas is my third option as a injury/bye-week fill-in this week.  The team that allows the second most points per week to the WR position is the Houston Texans.  This game should be filled with big passing plays due to how inept each secondary is and before their last game in week 8, Thomas was the best receiver for the Jaguars.

Dump List

Darren Sproles, RB, SD – It really looked like Sproles was going to go back to being used by the Chargers offense this week considering all the injuries to receivers and how effective he is in the passing game.  Unfortunately even when Mathews was knocked out of the game, Sproles did not get used and shouldn’t be trusted at all the rest of the year.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – He just doesn’t have it in him anymore.  The Panthers offense is struggling and there is no telling who will lineup at QB for them any given week.  That inconsistency and the below-average play of Stewart make him a complete bust for this season, so get out while you still may be able to salvage your team!

Brent Celek, TE, PHI - Vick just doesn’t look for Celek with any regularity.  You may not be able to find a better option on free agency, but if you can then don’t feel bad about dumping Celek.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF - I don’t care how dynamic of a play maker he is, you can’t wait forever for this guy to prove his worth.  He is on a bad team, with an inconsistent offense and since he has only had one decent week all year, you can’t trust him to start him… so just drop him and let him be someone else’s headache.

Marion Barber, RB, DAL - The Cowboys are a bad team.  It may not have looked like it going into the season, but as they fight with the Bills for the number 1 draft pick and are completely unable to run the ball, there is no reason to hold on to their number 2 RB.

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*Game is being played in Toronto

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*Game is being played in Toronto

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