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Falcons at Saints

Monday Night Football promises to be a great game and it has quite an impact on the NFC playoff picture. The Saints are looking to wrap up the division title at home against the Falcons this week and Atlanta is hoping to cling to clinch a playoff spot with a win.  Atlanta will need to lean heavily on Michael Turner in an effort to keep Drew Brees on the sidelines.  Brees has been the MVP of the second half of the season and the offense as a whole is playing as well as it has since their Super Bowl season. Darren Sproles is the only Saints runner worth the risk this week against a stout Falcons rush defense ranked 4th in the league. The New Orleans defense is not scary enough to downgrade any Atlanta offensive players but Julio Jones is always a risk to have a weak game despite his spot in my rankings at 16. Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham are both must-starts and should see an increase in targets with the running game struggles.  I like the Saints to win this game on the arm of Drew Brees with home field advantage, they have been too good lately to expect a sudden collapse.

Chargers at Lions

The situation is slightly different for each team here but each will be desperate for a win.  If Detroit wins they are in the playoffs and if San Diego loses they are out.  For some reason San Diego always seems to live up to their expectations at the end of the year but it is usually a matter of whether or not they can dig out of the hole they dug for themselves earlier in the year. They dug a deep hole this time but two more wins just might dig them out of it. They are one game back from both the division lead, which Denver is currently trying to hold on to, and the second wild card spot. Detroit can lock-in a wild card spot with a win as they are 2 games ahead of a sea of 7-7′s who are all hoping to squeak their way into the post season. Ryan Mathews remains a quality start for fantasy owners this week with Detroit allowing over 130 yards per game on the ground.  San Diego is ranked 6th in the league and could decide that two people are a must on Calvin Johnson every play, which would turn Titus Young into a nice flex option.  I like Detroit to win this game but they will have to find a way to exploit the Charger defense and if Calvin Johnson does draw double teams, he needs to beat them anyways.

Giants at Jets

The Jets are officially listed as the home team in this game but it  won’t affect anything but the coin toss.  I am very interested to see how the Jets deploy Revis between Nicks and Cruz. We can be sure that the majority of the snaps will be for Nicks, who has been on a bit of a hot streak over the past three weeks.  The gap between the two receivers is as small as it’s been in a while with Cromartie the more likely corner back to be exploited. The Giants have generally been a let down recently and I think it all starts on defense.  They have had a lot of trouble stopping the run and hundred yard rushers are common.  Shonn Greene is a must start this week as he looks to continue his own hot streak.  Greene will be the story of this game and I think the Jets pull out the win.

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Studs

Drew Brees, QB, NO – The Saints are still clicking on all cylinders and Drew Brees really put any concerns to rest that may have come from their narrow victory in Tennessee. Brees completed 32 of 40 passes for 412 yards and 5 scores in a dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings.  Brees has finished the year incredibly well and especially considering that he saved his best football for the playoffs. He has catapulted thousands of mediocre teams to the championship game with his past two performances.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – McCoy is most likely going to be #2 in my MVP race for the 2011 Fantasy Football season.  Aaron Rodgers is almost a lock and Drew Brees is simply out playing Rodgers in the playoffs as of right now but no one has had the consistency of McCoy outside of the QB position. Another 100 yard game and 3 TDs. Welcome to your Super Bowl.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – It is very possible that Calvin Johnson owners survived last week in the playoffs and were still in the hunt for a championship title but plenty, myself included, are not. Regardless, Oakland was not able to answer the duo of Megatron and Matthew Stafford who were in 2nd and 3rd place for total fantasy points in week 15. This duo will be a nightmare should the Lions right the ship and finish strong enough to make the post-season.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – The Dolphins have had some considerable success stopping the run and that has been a big part of their recent turn-around. C.J. Spiller had a break out performance this week despite only 12 carries.  Spiller had 91 yards and a score on the ground and complimented this performance with another 9 catches, 76 yards and a score.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – White has been somewhat of a disappointment this season despite finishing strong with this week being his 5th straight game with double digit points and best game of the season this week.  10 catches for 135 yards and 2 TDs. Obviously you can’t expect too many games like this but I didn’t think it would take until week 15 for his first one!  Nice to see if his fantasy owners are still alive and White has been playing well for a few weeks and just may have given you a late push into the post season.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – Brown averaged just over 10 yards per rush in the Colts’ first win of the season.  He totaled 161 yards and had an 80 yard TD run at the end to close out the game.  You weren’t starting him but anyone that can get the Colts a win is worth mentioning.

Duds

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – Just 3 catches for 8 yards is a HUGE disappointment for a guy that went on a hot streak as soon as the best offensive weapon of the Vikings went down with injury.  Peterson came back and Harvin did absolutely nothing.  He was even targeted 7 times in the passing game and there is no excuse for his inability to get one fantasy point.  If you made it into the Super Bowl with Harvin on your team you need to seriously consider sending Harvin to the bench.

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – Your season is over Eli owners. Eli outscored just one QB that started this week so far and that was Blaine Gabbert.  Two different Titan QBs were either tied or better than Eli and you were better off playing T.J. Yates, Dan Orlovsky, Tavaris Jackson, Seneca Wallace or even Caleb Hanie.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – People don’t give Champ Bailey any credit but I will when I rank Stevie Johnson next week.  Bailey held Welker to 4 fantasy points and while you can survive a bad game from a WR or RB, the playoffs isn’t where you want these games from your studs.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – He averaged 6 yards per carry but only had 10 touches. You need more than 6 points from your number one overall draft pick in the playoffs and more importantly to me, the Viking offense lost a spark when they got their best player back.  Toby Gerhart and Percy Harvin were both getting carries the past few weeks and Gerhart was getting better numbers than Peterson did this week and Harvin completely disappeared.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – All of the Packer receivers were targeted just 4 times in this game but Nelson was the guy that needed to step up and fill-in for Greg Jennings and he was not able to get it done against Brandon Flowers and the Chiefs.  Jermichael Finley stepped up big-time with 10 targets and the best yardage total but Donald Driver got the score.  At the end of the day, Rodgers had over 20 fantasy points and that isn’t really that bad, despite what his average on the season is.

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Studs

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC – There is certainly no better place to start than the guy who ended my season and the season of many others.  MJD went absolutely crazy this week against the Buccaneers and totalled FOUR TDs on 136 all-purpose yards.  He was the highest scoring player from week 14 and if he can carry the Jaguars’ offense, he can carry your fantasy team too.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – Yes, Dallas lost the game.  Tony Romo still had a big statistical performance for fantasy owners after starting RB DeMarco Murray went down early in the game.  Felix Jones filled in well against a soft rush defense but it was Romo’s 321 yards and 4 TDs that really kept Dallas in this game and it took some late heroics from Eli to take this game from Dallas.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Assuming you didn’t reach for him as your RB1 at draft time, you may have gotten by and into the playoffs with Green as your RB2. Good for you if you did because now that he is on fire late in the year, he is fast becoming one of the best second RBs that you could ask for. And you have to love a player that is at his best when it matters most for you.

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – These big-play guys can be frustrating but you have to start them when they have a soft match up.  And if you did this week with Jones, it paid off in a big way.  He only managed 3 catches but they totaled 104 yards and two scores.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE – The only thing crazier than how unbelievably good Gronkowski has been this season is how early he will be taken in fantasy drafts next year.  He has already set the single-season TD record which was previously 13 for tight ends.  His current tally is 15 and counting with 3 games remaining. I heard an interesting fact on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus Podcast this week; If you took away all the TDs from Gronkowski and let all the other players keep theirs, he would still be the 4th highest scoring TE in the NFL for fantasy.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – The Saints offense did not look like it has in recent weeks.  They don’t play near as well outside and the Titans secondary did a great job of bottling up the receivers of New Orleans until the 4th quarter.  When it mattered most, to win the game, Brees found Colston twice on scoring plays and managed to squeak out a win.

Duds

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – The Lions passing game was working pretty well with a soft match up this week and yet Calvin Johnson only had 29 receiving yards and 11 rushing.  Three fantasy points is not enough from the top receiver in the NFL for fantasy football and it hurt a lot of people in a bad way. You have to keep starting him but I don’t expect teams to stop double covering him anytime soon.

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – Zilch. Zippo. Nadda.  This is exactly how many points and catches Finley had this week.  Just one target too, that is what legitimately scares me. I expected more from Finley this year but his targets have been low and aren’t getting any better.  He is not a top 5 option like he was drafted as.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – Hey, Bradshaw… how about you show up to team meetings…  He was benched for the first half of the game and wasn’t that productive in the 2nd half. Brandon Jacobs ran well in his place but there wasn’t much warning about this and it destroyed a lot of match ups this week.

Greg Jennings, WR, GB – This isn’t the first time Jennings’ numbers have been low but it is the first time that the entire Packers passing game had a mediocre day.  That’s what happens when the running game gets the job done for a change. Don’t be too worried about it if you made it through but you could easily have been eliminated by Jennings’ poor performance.

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Bengals at Steelers

The Bengals have been one of my favorite teams to watch thus far this season.  They have one of the most prolific rookie QB to rookie WR combinations ever as well as a solid running game to compliment one of the best and most complete defenses in the NFL. Despite being in the middle of 4 games against their division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, if the season ended today, the Bengals would be in the playoffs. They will need a big win this week against the Steelers to keep the Jets and Tim Tebow in the rear-view mirror and they certainly have a good shot at it. The status of Troy Polamalu could easily tell the tale of how this game will go.  AJ Green will be able to blow the top off of the coverage a few times without Troy and his hair out there on Sunday and this season teams have been able to run against the Steelers with limited success. Pittsburgh on the other hand had issues moving the ball on offense against the Chiefs last week and this has me far from confident that they can find a way to win this game.  I am going to follow my gut and take the underdog Bengals to win a very close game.  Cedric Benson falls JUST outside my top 20 (to 21st) in my running back rankings, which makes him a great flex option or passable RB2. I am continuing to consider AJ Green matchup-proof still and kept him inside my top 20 this week at wide receiver. Rashard Mendenhall has proven to be nothing more than an RB2 this season and I ranked him on the low-end of my top 20 against the 5th best rush defense in the NFL. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown were unaffected by the match up when doing my rankings so you can start them confidently in whatever role you have been using them in.  Big Ben doesn’t have a lot of upside and he remains a low-end starting QB this week.

Packers at Giants

The Giants are in a dog fight over the NFC East title and this game is huge for them.  Unfortunately this is also one of the two games remaining where the Packers can reasonably be beaten.  I am obviously going to put my money on Green Bay but if they win this one, I only see the Lions in week 17 as the only team capable of beating them. I expect Green Bay to play for the undefeated season as they remain the best and among the least injured teams in the league. The Giants on the other hand have had a variety of injuries but have persevered through them and sit one game behind Dallas for the division lead. Neither team has a defense that scares me at all and surprisingly, the Packers are the 31st ranked pass defense in the league.  This is helped by the fact that they always have a sizable lead late and teams are throwing in desperation to try and play catch-up.  I think Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can be started with supreme confidence in this game as junk-time should be very good to them at least. Brandon Jacobs should be rendered irrelevant by the time the 4th quarter comes around and the duo of Starks and Grant for Green Bay has not been worth much attention for fantasy owners, so stay away.

Lions at Saints

The Lions have an opportunity to jump ahead of Chicago in the wild card race now that Caleb Hanie is at the helm for the Bears.  It won’t be easy this week against the Saints, who have really hit their stride in recent weeks.  Last Monday, the Saints dismantled the Giants and I honestly expect another convincing win for Brees. Detroit seems to have issues pushing the ball down field when they don’t have balance with the running game.  Teams have been able to roll coverage to Calvin Johnson and contain him in order to try and force someone else to make the big play.  This formula has worked better for some teams than others but I think it works very well for the Saints this week, who are bound to score plenty of points on offense.  Neither defense scares me from a fantasy-owners stand point, so you can go ahead and start your QBs and WRs with confidence.   Don’t bother with any of the running backs unless you are really desperate. James Jones is the most questionable receiver in this game and I think you have to play him if your light on options and are looking for a high-upside player that can beat a really high scoring opponent.

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