Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day. Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks. I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown. You can catch the QB ranks here.
The Top Two
When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed. Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy. Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game. I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability. It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other. In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one. I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.
The Rest of the Elite
Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo. My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day. Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice. Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees). That lead was 47 points. The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points! After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up. If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week. Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.
The Best of the Rest
Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler. This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league. My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco. This guy is coming into his third year in the league. It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time. Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield. Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them. Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths. Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game. I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.
The Rest
If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world. You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense. Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger. There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys. Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year. McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives. He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions. This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own. I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points. I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.
Sleepers
Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.
Busts
Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.
Recap
The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10. If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s. There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat. There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.
The super bowl champion Saints are my favorite to win it all again this season. There is a myth that it is really difficult to win back to back super bowls, which is just a lie. I know, it sounds crazy… but hear me out. Since the start of the super bowl era of the NFL SEVEN different teams have won back to back super bowl championships and the Steelers did it twice. The factors that go into winning a super bowl do not get more difficult the next year. This team has retained almost all of their free agents going into the uncapped year. With more experience and the talent already assembled and proven realistically they only need to stay healthy in order to get deep into the playoffs. To me Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush is a great RB duo and I think Thomas will be a steal for fantasy owners as a solid RB2. Meachem is also a viable option in the later rounds as a backup WR.
Fantasy Relevant Players
Drew Brees – Even though I have him ranked as my number two QB he is a first round talent and could easily be the top fantasy QB at the end of the year. The only reason he is not my number one is that Rodgers runs the ball with consistency and typically gets in the end zone by running more than any other QB.
Pierre Thomas – I can’t figure out why there is so much hate for Thomas. Everyone liked him last year but it turned out that Bell was taking too many red zone carries from him and he did not return the value people expected to get when they drafted him. Bell is gone! Reggie Bush of all people will not be used for short yardage and all reports from training camp so far say that he looks really good.
Marques Colston – I rank him as my number 10 WR so he is a WR1 for sure. You really shouldn’t let him fall farther than tenth at his position. The only evidence you need is that he is the best receiver that Drew Brees has at his disposal.
