3 Comments »

Studs

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Austin was on fire in this game and managed to get hurt just to make it all barely worth it. None-the-less, its tough to lose in a week when you have a receiver catch 9 balls for 143 yards and 3 TDs.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – If you missed the Bills game this weekend, you missed one hell of a game. Go find a way to watch it.  There were 5 lead changes in the 4th quarter and Buffalo scored on all five of their 2nd half possessions. Jackson just had 15 carries, but was able to rip off some big gains and totaled 117 yards with two TDs.  Surprisingly, Jackson is the 4th highest scoring fantasy RB on the season so far and he is shaping up to be one of the better second RBs out there.  I won’t go crazy over my Bills until they beat New England in week 3 and sit on top of the division, so lessen your expectations for this week as the Bills are going to be passing like crazy to try and keep up.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – Maclin had a really good game in week 2 and needed to in order to alleviate concerns that his fantasy owners might have had after the illness scare and a sluggish week 1.  Maclin racked up a staggering 13 receptions for 171 yards and 2 TDs. I was never concerned that much and think that Maclin is a top 15 receiver the rest of the way.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Even after his big week 1, I didn’t think Newton would be able to be too effective against a VERY good Packers defense. Despite the pass rush and secondary, Cam was the 2nd highest scoring QB in fantasy this week and while I don’t see him keeping up this production consistently the rest of the way, but I see no reason to not ride out this hot streak if you are in need of a QB. He is definitely a must-start for a while in 2 QB leagues.

Jahvid Best, RB, DET – I am not a big fan of Best, but he has big play ability and is on an offense that is clearly going to have little issue with producing stats for fantasy owners. Best was a factor in both the passing and running game this week with 57 yards on the ground and 66 in the air with both a rushing and receiving score. His rushing performance was mediocre at best considering he saw 15 carries but at the end of the day, who doesn’t love 23 fantasy points for your RB2?

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – With Brandon Lloyd inactive in this game, Decker was a fashionable plug-in for people in need of a flex play this week and it paid off big time. He caught 5 passes for 113 yards and had 2 TDs against the Bengals and should have ensured that Orton looks his way more when Lloyd is back and 100%.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I’ll stop writing about him when he stops making me look so smart. Britt had another huge day in week 2 with 135 yards and a TD on 9 catches. He’s a top 10 receiver and at this point it is pretty hard to argue with that. Start him every week.

Duds

Antonio Gates, TE, SD – Gates was double teamed all game in week 2 and shockingly put up zero points against the Patriots. They schemed to take him out of the game and it was a successful strategy.  But let’s not panic, he is still by far the top TE in fantasy football.

Matt Cassel, QB, KC – Cassel was terrible both weeks so far.  I never expected the Chiefs to be what they were last year, but I did hope for something.  In my league (which does not have standard scoring) Cassel lost me three points and even in a standard format, he certainly didn’t do you any favors.  With Moeaki and Charles gone for the season, I have no faith in the Chiefs’ offense anymore and see no reason to risk starting Cassel any longer.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – Zero points? What happened?! This was a weird game for the Buccs and it took them some time to be productive on offense.  Arrelious Benn caught the TD pass from Freeman and LeGarrette Blount led the comeback.  I am not worried about Williams the rest of the way, but I wasn’t quite as high on him as others were going into the season.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – The rise of Cam Newton seems to be spelling the downfall of Williams.  As long as Cam is able to be effective in pass-first offense, I expect Ron Rivera and the Panthers to let him go for it. Williams isn’t seeing a lot of work and has not been able to do much with his limited touches.  Don’t drop him yet, but he is not a quality start even as a flex play for a while in my opinion.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – You can’t start Lynch any more and if Seattle can’t drum up any offense next week, I expect to see Lynch show up on my Dump List. He had just 11 yards in week 2.

No Comments »

No Comments »

What a crazy start to the 2011 season. We saw proven, storied franchises collapse completely and we saw a rookie debut record from a class of QBs that no one was excited about. So lets get this week 1 recap started!

Studs

Tom Brady, QB, NE – Over 500 yards and 4 TDs. I’ll excuse the INT because he probably single-handedly won your week 1 match up if you had him.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Newton was not expected to be an immediate success in the NFL.  He came from an option-style offense after just one year and one NCAA championship. Many people, including myself, felt that he was not worth the number 1 overall draft pick.  24 completions on 37 attempts, 422 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. That shut me up. This yardage total is a record for rookie’s in their debut, beating out Peyton Manning’s first ever rookie performance.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – Wow. Are the Raven’s that good or are the Steelers that bad? Honestly, probably neither.  But Rice’s performance was outstanding considering how dominant the Steelers defense has been.  He was certainly helped by 7 turnovers increasing his number of chances, but I am interested to see just how big of a season Rice will have running behind Vonta Leach.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Smith definitely helped Cam look good Sunday as he faced off against Patrick Peterson and made him look foolish all day in coverage. After last season, in my Year in Review article, I discussed how if Carolina could land a decent QB then Smith would return to fantasy relevance. I am still not betting on Newton’s consistency, but Newton sure looks like he will be enough to make Smith into a startable option for fantasy owners.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD – He may not have racked up too much yardage, but any fantasy owner loves to see a 3 TD performance and that’s what Tolbert did this week. He did appear to be hurt late in that game, but all reports have been great since the game and we can expect Tolbert to be at 100% for week 2.  His usage in the passing game and especially in the red zone makes Tolbert the clear guy to own of the Chargers running backs.  At least for now.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – The Bears offense looks to be building off their success from last season and Forte is going to be a big part of that with his pass catching ability out of the backfield. I was surprised to see Khalil Bell get 10 carries in the win over the Falcons, but in a Mike Martz system, you want the guy that catches the ball so I am not concerned.  Especially not following 158 all-purpose yards and a TD.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I love to talk about this guy, I don’t think people are giving him the credit he deserves.  He tallied 136 yards on 5 catches and scored twice in Week 1.  This is going to be a season to remember for Britt and it will be without an elite QB.  This guy has a really bright future and will be a big part of your season if you were lucky enough to draft him.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – 150 yards on 22 carries? I guess he isn’t a one-year wonder.  While the match-up wasn’t great, neither was anyone else on the Raiders.  He will remain an integral part of the game plan and he is a number 1 caliber back in my opinion.

Chad Henne, QB, MIA – People might not have noticed exactly how good Henne was in a losing effort on Monday night.  His opponent Brady overshadowed him pretty bad, but Henne finished as the 2nd highest point total among all QB’s in the NFL in week 1 and should not be on free agency if you have serious QB concerns.

Duds

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben committed FIVE turnovers this week with three interceptions and two lost fumbles as the Steelers looked completely inept against division rival Baltimore Ravens.  A bad game doesn’t make me as nervous as the loss of right tackle Willie Colon for the season as the offensive line was weak already.  You need a good, servicable back up for Ben this year.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – Rivers ended up with a decent enough point total that he evades a spot on this list, but Rivers did not play that well in Week 1.  The Chargers are known to start slow and managed to claw their way to a win… but special teams hurt them again and Jackson was not a factor in the vertical passing game, which will need to change for the Chargers to be a Super Bowl contender as they hope to be.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Holding out as long as he did really slowed the start of the season for CJ2k as he had just 24 yards rushing and 25 receiving. I thought he was supposed to be one of the top playmakers in the NFL? I guess he’ll have to earn that pay check next week.  If you own him, your starting him.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – The Buccs have some work to do because despite how close the score looked at the end of the game, the Lions really controlled the game from start to finish and Blount was rendered ineffective by a need to pass to try and get back into the game.  Blount needs carries to get into a rhythm and wear down the defense so I am not too concerned, but we can expect at least a few more games like this by the end of the season.  He is still a solid RB2.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I kinda called this one, the Buffalo pass defense does not get enough credit and they really shut down the Chiefs in week 1.  I have concerns going forward for Bowe, but I had them before and he is no more than a low-end WR2 in my eyes.  He will drop further if KC can’t get their running game going either.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons offense looked out-matched against the Bears D and Ryan was not a very effective passer in this game. I think the Falcons will get ti figured out and I am not overly concerned with Ryan going forward.

No Comments »

It’s that time folks.  The regular season is upon us and my Player Rankings for Week 1 have been released.  I hope you are all as excited as I am and good luck to you all this season!

Love

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – Charles is a guy that I believe in and as Thomas Jones ages, Charles’ carries will go up.  The Bills allowed an abysmal 169.6 yards per game, which was the worst in the league.  They did draft Marcell Dareus to help fix this problem but with a shortened off-season due to the lockout, the immediate impact of Dareus will be lessened.  Charles is among the best young RB talent in the NFL and you have to like his chances to break a big play or two against such a mediocre at best run defense.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – The Chargers were one of the teams that managed to put together a decent off season program without the help of their coaching staff or management during the lockout. Also, there wasn’t too much turn-over from last season to this season as far as the offense is concerned.  This all adds up to an uncharacteristic fast-start for Norv Turner, Philip Rivers and the Chargers in my opinion.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Denver is not just Oakland’s week one opponent, they were also last season’s 2nd worst rush defense.  This isn’t really about match-up either. McFadden averaged 128 yards per game in all-purpose yards last season and is, until further notice, a must-start in my opinion.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I’ve been pretty open about my love for Britt for a while now and with no suspension and a weak opposing secondary in week 1, Britt is a must-start in my opinion.

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – You may be surprised to see ME put this guy on my love list, because I was not big on him going into the draft.  My concern with Hillis has always been about durability and the fact that Montario Hardesty is more talented than Hillis and below him on the depth chart.  I think that at some point this season, Hillis misses a game and Hardesty is someone I think will be able to take advantage of the playing time and win the starting role. Until then, Hillis is a great RB 2 and especially against a team led by a rookie QB (Cincinnati).

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Freeman and the Buccs lost to the Lions at home last season and it cost them a playoff spot.  You think they want revenge? Because I’ll bet they are pretty pumped to start the season off with a W in such a meaningful way.  The Lions bolstered their defensive front this offseason while not addressing their porous secondary.  I expect Freeman to look deep a few times in this game and a tough week 1 for LeGarrette Blount if the Buccs can’t move the ball in the air.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – Let’s not mistake this for some crazy Kerry Collins love.  This is about the Texans secondary being almost the worst in NFL history last season and having to adjust to a new system ran by Wade Phillips.  Wayne is a very consistent and complete receiver and he is who Collins will trust on third downs.  He just barely cracks my top 20, but that makes him a starter.  Don’t let the lack of Peyton scare you into benching him.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – I wouldn’t have drafted him as my RB2, but injuries are the concern here and a healthy Beanie Wells should have a good day against the Panthers in week 1.  Cam Newton is not likely to start too smoothly in his first regular season NFL start without a short off-season and it’s very possibly that this is an ugly game for Carolina fans.  I expect the Cardinals to lead-off with a heavy rushing attack to ease new QB Kevin Kolb into a routine and comfort level too.

Hate

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – A lot of people reached for Julio Jones on draft day because of the absurd combine performance he had and how much the Falcons gave up to draft him.  What they don’t realize is the complexity of the Falcons offense as well as the lockout will severely limit the plays that Jones will be on the field for.  He will spend a  lot of time running deep routes to attract safety help out of respect for his speed and he will do a much better job of opening up passing lanes for Roddy White than anything else.  Look for Jones to start slow and slowly become a viable flex play.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL – You are in trouble this week if you drafted Flacco as a starter or maybe as your backup to Peyton.  Flacco faces the division rival Steelers and after what I saw them do to Vick in the preseason, the focus will likely be on grinding out Ray Rice and the running game.  Flacco could have troubles breaking double digit points in this game.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – Bowe had a great season last year and there is little chance he can repeat those numbers.  He played the Bills last year and was held to just 16 yards on his 3 catches.  Fantasy owners barely noticed this lack luster performance because a very short TD catch was involved and he ended up not ruining anyone’s week.  Don’t expect Bowe to be anything more than a good WR2 and you won’t get burned.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SF – Lynch made for an interesting draft selection this year with top 20 potential.  But let’s make him prove he can live up to it before we risk a roster spot for him yet.  He faces a stout 49er line-backing corp led by Patrick Willis and Lynch is too inconsistent for my liking at the moment.

No Comments »

Philadelphia Eagles

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first.  The Eagles are my and most people’s favorites to win the NFC in 2011.  This is largely due to the ABSURD amount of talent added in free agency over the past week, which includes Ronnie Brown, Cullen Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DRC), Nnamdi Asomugha and Jason Babin.  Jenkins is a wall of a defensive tackle with a particular talent for getting his hands up into the passing lanes and batting down short passes (he holds the Green Bay Franchise record for this statistic in a single season by a D-lineman with 9 in the 2007 season). Rodgers-Cromartie is a very solid Cornerback that has been getting better each year since drafted 16^th overall in 2008.  He has made a name for himself by coming up with big plays in crucial situations, namely a 99 yard INT return for a touchdown against the Rams in his rookie season which secured the division title for the Cards. Jason Babin was also brought back to Philly this offseason through free agency off the heels of a 12.5 sack season in 2010. The least attractive addition to the roster for the Eagles is the most recent, Ronnie Brown.  Don’t get me wrong, Brown makes the team better and will probably handle short yardage and goal line touches.  But, with all the blockbuster players picked up on defense, its easy to barely acknowledge this one. Lastly, the biggest surprise acquisition for Andy Reid’s ball club was Nnamdi Asomugha.  Asomugha is in most people’s eyes the 2^nd best cornerback in the entire league.  With three cornerbacks that are talented enough to be the top guy on any team in the league and a formidable pass rush the Eagles defense is, on paper, the best in the NFL for the upcoming 2011 season.  It is difficult to see what could stand in the way of this team’s success apart from a slew of injuries.

Kenny Britt

If we set aside all the off-field issues and pretend that Britt would play in all 16 games, I would have him as a top 15 wide receiver this season.  Now he will be facing some disciplinary actions and I expect him to see a four game suspension and have it reduced down to two.  He was not likely to crack my top 20 at WR given Jake Locker looked to be the starting QB for this seasuon but now that Matthew Hasselbeck is in Tennessee, Britt has a QB that can accurately and reliably hit an open receiver.  Last season, when Britt was on the field, he looked like a man among boys in what was otherwise a very pedestrian passing attack. Britt got hurt in week 8 and did not return until week 14, but despite missing all this time to injury, he still amassed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  Most impressive to me was how much more successful the Titans were with him on the field.  The first 7 games of the season were all played with Britt in the lineup and the Titans were sitting at 5-2.  Starting the week that Britt got hurt, the Titans slid on a 6 game losing streak.  This was more to do with poor QB play from Rusty Smith and Kerry Collins, but Britt is by far the best receiving threat the Titans have on their roster and defenses are forced to keep 8 in the box in an effort to contain Chris Johnson.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cards were in a tough spot this offseason.  They wanted to do everything they could to make Larry Fitzgerald happy, so that he would not leave the team after the 2011 season.  In order to do that, they needed to get him a QB.  The draft did not provide this for them, but a trade with Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb did.  He cost them Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2^nd round pick, but you don’t often get a potential franchise QB cheap, so it was worth the risk.  DRC was expendable after the drafting of Patrick Peterson and in the sub-par NFC West; the Cards are playoff contenders again.

Donovan McNabb

I don’t think the Vikings are going to be in the running for the division title, but with Adrian Peterson carrying the load and a solid defense to keep the offense on the field, McNabb is able to prove that he was not the problem in Washington last season.  Losing Sidney Rice hurts but with Roy Williams, Johnny Knox and Devin Hester at receiver, McNabb has a better receiving corp than many of his pro bowl seasons in Philly.  Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect McNabb to be more than a QB2, but Vikings fans can be happy to have someone who can potentially take them back to the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

If you are familiar with me, you know I am a big Bills fan.  I might be just excited for my team here, but Buffalo made two very nice acquisitions this week in Free Agency. Unfortunately, Buffalo lost Paul Posluszny early in the Free Agency period to Jacksonville, but Pos is a better 4-3 middle linebacker than he is ILB in the 3-4 and since the Bills are still adjusting their personnel to suit the new scheme, this won’t likely hurt too bad.  Especially after drafting Kelvin Sheppard and signing Nick Barnett, they should be okay at ILB.  The Bills are also set up to take serious advantage of the new 3^rd-QB rule, or lack there-of.  Buffalo took an explosive playmaker from their division-rival New York Jets when they signed Brad Smith.  Smith can now be placed at the 46^th roster spot (3rd QB) and take snaps from under center.  Previously, using your 3^rd QB before the 4^th quarter meant that your 1^st and 2^nd string QB’s could not re-enter the game.  Buffalo needs excitement brought back to their football team badly and even the idea of CJ Spiller and Brad Smith in a Wildcat formation is pretty darn exciting.  I expect Buffalo to remain a losing football team next season, especially since they are still in the AFC East, but look for a lot more big plays and fantasy points in 2011.

Tavaris Jackson

After Hasselbeck left town for Tennessee, Tavaris Jackson signed a deal to reunite him with his old offensive coordinator in Seattle.  There will be some competition between Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst, but my guess is that his understanding of the offense and his relationship with fellow former Viking and newly acquired Seahawk Sidney Rice makes Jackson the heavy favorite to win the starting job.  Throw in the addition of Zach Miller to the receiving corp for good measure and now Seattle might actually have an offense.  Jackson has a lot of talent and play-making ability so if he was able to work on his down field accuracy and pocket-presence, he may be able to resurrect his career with this opportunity.  In my eyes, it comes down to how consistent Marshawn Lynch can be to take the pressure off the passing game.

No Comments »

Before it gets too far away from the end of the 2010 NFL season, we should take a look back at a few players who either exceeded expectations or didn’t come close.  These players can make or break your draft next year as their former owners clamor for a chance to own their savior from last season again, or let them fall way too deep in the draft because of bitter feelings of resentment.  In order to be a good fantasy football player you have to have a short memory, but there are always a few nuggets of information worth remembering over the long-term:

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – He was a dud this past season and it is easy to think that he is getting old and no longer a factor.  I took a look at his production and found something worth noting, take a look for yourself:

Games with Matt Moore at QB

Games without Matt Moore at QB

*Matt Moore started but was knocked out due to injury in the first half.

Moore did not make the Panthers a better team by any stretch, but he clearly had a trust and connection with the only legitimate receiving threat that Carolina had last year.  I am not saying that he has much value going into next season, but the Panthers are very likely to go with a different QB next season and I do not blame Smith for his mediocre numbers. Smith could end up a gem if he can build chemistry with whoever is at Quarterback for the Panthers, so don’t be afraid to use a mid to late round pick on him at next years draft.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – What more can you ask for from the Chief’s stud running back, who burst on the scene last year? MORE CARRIES!  I have been on record saying that Todd Haley is an idiot, but it never hurts to say it again.  Charles averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry over the course of the season, which was highest in the NFL for all players who saw over 100 carries on the season. Charles was also 2^nd in total yards with 1,467, not far behind Arian Foster who had 1,616.  Even more impressively, he did it on just 230 carries (Foster had 327).  Thomas Jones was the other back involved in the league’s top rushing attack and despite having just a 3.7 YPC average Jones saw 15 more carries.  This was essentially a 50/50 timeshare, but look for Charles to get better every season from here on out.  Thomas Jones is aging quickly while Charles gains experience, he will be trusted to carry the ball more often. This guy is here to stay and I do not see his production dropping off even a little next year.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I was very surprised that the Chiefs made the playoffs this season and Dwayne Bowe was a big part of their success.  He started the season pretty poorly, with 152 yards and one TD in his first four games.  In weeks 6 and 7 he went up against two of the worst secondaries in the NFL and his production spiked with 189 yards and four TDs in those two weeks.  He went on a 7 game scoring streak recording 13 touchdowns during that timeframe.  Easily lost in these impressive stats is the trouble that Bowe had against quality defensive backs; In week 13 Bowe was held without a catch against an aging Champ Bailey and in week 8 against Buffalo, he had three catches for just 16 yards (though one of them was a TD).  Lastly, the team’s passing offense disappeared when Matt Cassel missed a game against the Chargers in week 14.  I don’t blame this on Bowe but for me to take a guy as my top wide receiver, I’d like to think he could get open at least ONCE for his backup QB.  All this points to Bowe having a lot of upside for next season, but it is not without risk.  Bowe is nothing more than a WR2 until he can produce more consistently, so don’t get caught paying too high a price to have him on your team next season.

Brent Celek, TE, PHI – Celek had a breakout season in 2009 when Donovan McNabb was at Quarterback for the Eagles and appeared to be a big part of their offense last season when Kevin Kolb was running the show.  Once Michael Vick took the starting job, Celek appeared to become an afterthought.  The fact is that with a mobile quarterback like Vick, the tight end will not be used as often as with a pocket passer… especially when the offensive line struggles as it did last year. The end of the season was better for Celek, but the big issue for me will be his consistency.  There might be more 10-reception games like in week 16 on the horizon, but I am much more concerned with how many 0-2 fantasy-point outings are waiting for his fantasy owners.  I think Celek has the skill to be a top-5 TE, but the situation looks to be a frustrating one for fantasy owners and you can find a better value at the position during next year’s draft.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – There was a lot of hype going into last year’s fantasy draft season about Shonn Greene being the lead guy for the Jets.  This was not the case, LT showed that he still has what it takes to be a dynamic playmaker and was pivotal to the early success that the Jets had.  Later in the year however, LT slowed down and made less of an impact.  LT might be getting old, but he still has the ability to make an impact in a supporting role.  He was used as the lead back most of the season and because of that he wore down and was not as effective a weapon late in the year.  If Rex Ryan hopes to get the most of LT deep into the playoffs he will need to lean much more heavily on Shonn Greene, which knocks LT out of my top 30 running backs for next season.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – Britt is my biggest sleeper pick for next year’s fantasy draft.  I am by no means alone in this, but there is good reason that so many people think he is about to explode… he already did.  Last season Britt started just 7 games and still managed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  This is an average of over 110 yards and 1.2 TDs per game.  These averages are slightly inflated due to a 225 yard 3 score game in week 7, but since when do we mind letting one player put up 40+ points with their backup QB?  Right now I see Britt as a top-15 receiver, but this all depends on how the Titans go about addressing their QB situation.  The Titans also have a new head coach, Mike Munchak, who was a 9 time pro-bowl offensive lineman and is sure to favor the ground game.  This actually bodes well for Britt however, because Chris Johnson will force defenders to bring an eighth into the box to contain him and severely limit their ability to double cover Britt.  I expect the Titans to look to add a veteran QB to their roster in an effort to give them a chance to win right out of the gates and if say, Donovan McNabb landed the job… the Titans would instantly have a playoff-caliber team.  All we really need now is a new CBA so that free agency can happen…

No Comments »

Love

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - I have used this stat a lot, but it stays relevant so here it is again: McFadden has gotten 100 yards from scrimmage in all but two starts this season and one of them was against the Steelers.  The players that perform consistently all season are the ones you should be using in the playoffs.  DMC also has a great match up against the Broncos who are the 31st ranked rush defense in the NFL, who allow an average of 150 yards per game.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – With the Saints as opponents next week, we should expect to see the Ravens attack New Orleans on the ground.  The Greg Williams blitzing scheme has been disrupting the timing of opposing QBs all season and when you have such a talented backfield with Rice, McClain and McGahee… there is little reason to not attempt to control the clock and run the ball as much as possible.  If the Saints are able to build an early lead, then this will all go out the window and the Ravens will go to the air.  IF you didn’t know Rice is pretty good at catching the ball out of the back field.

Mike Williams, WR, TB - I expect a good bounce-back game for Williams who was shut down last week.  Arrelious Benn is developing into another vertical threat for the Buccs offense and he will force the Lions’ depleted secondary to single cover Williams who should be able to get deep and find the end zone at least once.  Another nice thing to note here, is that the Lions seem to be competitive in every game they play.  This will keep Williams and the passing game relevant deep into the fourth quarter.

Felix Jones, RB, DAL - The Jason Garrett-led Dallas Cowboys have found an element of their offense that did not exist when Wade Phillips was running the show… the run game.  Tashard Choice has proven to be a versatile weapon with his ability to run between the tackles, as well as his speed through the hole.  Jones is the guy they look to get the ball to in open space and because of this, he is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  With the run-game being effective lately, his touches have increased and that is all that Jones will need to be a quality flex-starter for fantasy owners, opportunity!

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - The Jaguars corner backs have been terrible this season, they allow big plays and are unable to cover physical receivers in a one on one scenario.  Wayne should have a good game as well, despite drawing double teams and safety help over the top, but Garcon should be left isolated on the other side of the field.  Coming off a big game, look for Pierre to catch at least 8 passes, totaling 80 yards and a score.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – The Texans pass defense has been terrible this season, they are on pace to be the worst in NFL history and even with Kerry Collins at QB, Britt should do just fine.  Keep in mind that, before his injury, Collins was the QB for Britt’s HUGE game back in week 7.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – After watching Alex Smith tear the Seahawks’ secondary to shreds last week, I have a lot of confidence in White this week.  Matt Ryan never plays that well on the road and outdoors, but he doesn’t need to play well to get White a great fantasy performance this week.  There is no one that can cover him one-on-one if they don’t at least provide safety help over the top, they will be burned by a big play.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – With the outstanding performances of both Jacobs and Bradshaw in recent weeks, fantasy owners can NOT leave either guy on the bench any longer.  Jacobs will be the first to see a drop off in production, when opposing defenses figure out how to shut them down… but I don’t expect that to happen this week against the Eagles.  Philadelphia’s defense has two VERY important players on it, Stewart Bradley and Asante Samuel.  Bradley will be out for the remainder of the regular season (at least) and Samuel has missed the past three games.  If Samuel does not come back, expect the Giants to win… but without Bradley, the Eagles are not likely to stop the run with any consistency.

Hate

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - Last week Crabtree was a non-factor in the 49er offense and they got a great game from Alex Smith.  This week they face the Chargers, who lose games only because of abysmal special teams play.  Their defense has been fantastic all season and have only allowed an average of 13 points per week to opposing receivers.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – The Bills have the 4th ranked pass defense in the league and despite finding the end zone last week, he has performed FAR under everyone’s expectations.  He is no longer a viable fantasy-starter and should be reserved for your flex spot at best.  Don’t take a chance on him this week when common sense dictates the Dolphins will be running whenever possible.

Ladainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ - It is tough to start any Jets offensive players, except possibly Santonio Holmes.  Against Pittsburgh, there just won’t be any big plays and field goals are likely to decide this one. I know he is a large part of the reason you made the playoffs, but he is simply too risky to play this week.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - I would hate to do it, but I would still have to start Peterson this week.  You have to lower expectations as the Vikings offense has had little success lately, but Peterson remains the most complete and talented running back in the league.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Packers run defense has been great and Clay Matthews is my favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, but this is another situation where you will likely need to start him anyways.  The Patriots have been fantastic the past two weeks, decimating playoff teams and smart money is, they will be able to produce on offense no matter who their opponent is.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN – Last week is enough to plummet the values of every Denver Bronco for fantasy purposes, with one exception… Knowshon Moreno.  Studesville was not able to lead an offense that could produce at all against the Arizona Cardinals.   Oakland has a quality secondary and should have few problems shutting down Orton and Lloyd.

No Comments »

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN - Inactive
Percy Harvin, WR, MIN - Inactive
Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA - Inactive
Santana Moss, WR, WAS - Active
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - Active
Steve Smith, WR, NYG – Inactive
Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - Inactive
Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – Inactive

No Comments »

Pickups

Blair White, WR, IND - After Austin Collie left this game with an injury AGAIN, White was able to show what he can do with the chance to get on the field.  He was an effective slot receiver and Collie owners should go and pick this guy up to ensure they get the value that comes with Peyton’s slot receiver!  While initially it looked like Collie suffered a second concussion, there has been no confirmation of that and you will want to keep a close eye on this situation.

Mike Goodson, RB, CAR - Logic dictates that the Panthers will look to Jonathan Stewart to fill-in for DeAngelo Williams now that we know Williams is out for the season.  However, given the back-to-back 100 yard performances from Mike Goodson, this is no given.  The situation is hazy still, so both Stewart and Goodson should be owned… but I like Goodson due to the fact that he has been the most productive Panthers RB of the season thus far.

Nate Burleson, WR, DET - I really thought Burleson would lose all of his fantasy-value when Stafford was injured for the second time… but he has found a way to be productive and find the end zone.  I would rather own this guy than Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Nate Washington, Mario Manningham and maybe Randy Moss…  To clarify this a bit, DO NOT DROP MOSS JUST YET.  He has the Texans and Jaguars in consecutive weeks and that is exactly what sparked the resurgence of Dwayne Bowe.  If he flops next week, you can drop him if there are better options.

Keiland Williams, RB, WAS - Portis suffered a setback in his week 11 return and with Ryan Torain also looking like he should miss at least one more week… Williams has a leg-up on his competition by simply being the healthiest back that the Redskins have on their roster.  Make sure that he is owned in your league!

TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR, BAL – I won’t start trusting a performance like this, but Anquan Boldin owners are searching for answers on how to add to their depth…. Housh appears to have settled into his role in the Ravens offense.  If you’re in a deeper format, look to this former-fantasy stud to bolster your bench going into the playoffs.

Davone Bess, WR, MIA - Brandon Marshall suffered a hamstring injury and has been a huge disappointment thus far this season.  Even with the poor QB play exhibited on Thursday night, Bess is worth a roster spot going into next week with a longer break than normal.

Steve Breaston, WR, ARI – Derek Anderson is not a great QB.  Despite that, the Cardinals offense has been able to move the ball down the field as well as find the endzone.  He probably isn’t available in your league still… but make sure because he could be a fill-in should you suffer injuries at any point late in this season.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - There are rumors floating around that Ahmad Bradshaw has fumbled his starting job away.  While I don’t see how that could be true, if he keeps putting the ball on the ground while the team struggles… then it will certainly happen.  Jacobs is probably owned, but until now…. he probably shouldn’t have been.

Jon Kitna, QB, DAL – Cowboys football is fun to watch again?! He isn’t a savior… he isn’t even a great player.  But, if he can use the weapons that the Cowboys have at their disposal… he is a better backup than most.

Dump List

Willis McGahee, RB, BAL – The chance that McGahee sees the goal line carries is declining.  That is 100% of his value, so now that he isn’t a shoe-in to to get the short rushing TDs… why own him?

Lance Moore, WR, NO – Reggie Bush was so close to coming back for the game this week, that he is sure to make his return in week 12.  Moore saw increased touches in the passing game on the same kind of plays where Brees usually looked to Bush.  Moore is now down with Meachem in the rankings from here on out.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I know he is hurt, but a lot of people held onto him after his huge performance in week 7.  Now that the locker room is melting down and the QB situation is a mess, there is no need to reserve a roster spot for a guy who has no solid information available about his return.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA - I know that I for one expected Lynch to have a big comeback in Seattle… Justin Forsett is now the Seattle RB you want to own, so if there are any good alternatives on the waiver wire… bail now before it is too late.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG - Watch the Steve Smith injury very closely over the next few days.  We expected him to make it back after two weeks off and when he returns the value of Manningham goes out the window.

Clinton Portis, RB, WAS - I usually don’t include injured players here, you can read the reports to see how bad it is and make your decision.  Nothing I have seen does this justice however.  Get out now, my guess is he is done for the season and will likely not suit up as a Redskin again in his career.

2 Comments »