Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day.  Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks.  I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown.  You can catch the QB ranks here.

The Top Two

When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed.  Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy.  Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game.  I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability.  It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other.  In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one.  I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.

The Rest of the Elite

Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.  My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day.  Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice.  Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees).  That lead was 47 points.  The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points!  After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up.  If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week.  Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.

The Best of the Rest

Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league.  My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco.  This guy is coming into his third year in the league.  It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time.  Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield.  Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them.  Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths.  Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game.  I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.

The Rest

If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world.  You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense.  Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger.  There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys.  Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year.  McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives.  He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions.  This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own.  I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points.  I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.

Sleepers

Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.

Busts

Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.

Recap

The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10.  If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s.  There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat.  There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.

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The Falcons are one of three teams in their division that have the tools at their disposal to make the playoffs.  They are coming off their second consecutive winning season (franchise first) and after a slight decline in Matt Ryan’s production last year there is considerable pressure on the third year quarterback.  Last season this team was plagued with injuries to their top performers and this ultimately kept them from seriously competing for a playoff spot.  Michael Turner disappointed many owners by not being able to stay healthy going into the fantasy playoffs and due to this I have seen him fall to late in the first round. Do not be fooled he is the 6th ranked player overall and he has plenty of value that deep as it is.  Missing the playoffs last season was a by-product of injuries and growing pains, I fully expect to see growth from this young emerging team.

Fantasy Relevant Players

Michael Turner – As I said he is my number 6 ranked player, I expect at least 1200 yards from Turner this year and if he can stay healthy for all 16 games he could come close the the 1600 in his breakout year in 2008. As a side note, If you are interesting in drafting a handcuff for Turner you want Jason Snelling, not Jerious Norwood.

Roddy White – His statistical destiny is in the hands of Matt Ryan.  I like his odds.  With that said I hope to have drafted one of the receivers ranked in that elite group of five that are above him.  If you are not able to get one of them while he has some risk attached White is the best option.

Matt Ryan – In plenty of the mock drafts I have seen and participated in Ryan has fallen down to around the 10th drafted at his position.  He is not someone I would target on draft day, but if he slips and you miss out on Flacco then Ryan had plenty of upside.

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There are three teams in this division capable of making the post season this year, so at the very least we will see some entertaining football from these teams.  The Saints were able to do a phenomenal job retaining their free agent talent and remain heavy favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for the second straight year.  I seem to be the only one left on the planet that is a Matt Moore fan, so I couldn’t even pretend to be surprised to see a QB change in Carolina as well as a heavy dose of the run game.  The Falcons are the third team with a serious chance at making the playoffs from this division after experiencing a slight decline in production following their breakout 2008 campaign which brought players like Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White into the fantasy football spotlight.  Despite their injuries and growing pains they were still able to record their first consecutive winning seasons in franchise history.

Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers

New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Love

Randy Moss (NE) – Jaguars allow the 6th most yards per game in the air, and Moss is coming off a good game against a really good secondary.  Moss is set to have a great game for your Super Bowl match-up.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) - Oh, what it must be like to have one of the hottest QB’s in the league go against the worst ranked passing defense in the league.  You’ve been looking at this match-up hoping it would be relevant, and if it is congrats!

Vincent Jackson (SD) – He has been an elite guy all year until his brief cold streak, and boy has he bounced back (Just in time to get you into the Super Bowl too).  The Titans passing defense has its wholes and has been burned by the big play all year, although less since they found an offense in week 6 or so.  Rivers loves his favorite target and should be set to have a big game this week.

Drew Brees (NO) - If there is any team you want to play after your first loss it’s the Bucs.  The Saints are going to let a little frustration out against this two win ball club.

Adrian Peterson (MIN) – He only had 35 rushing yards last week but with his long passing play in junk time he was able to get a very respectable fantasy total last week.  The Bears are not as good as the Panthers, and the Vikes have a chip on their shoulder with the media TOTALLY OVER-REACTING about a sideline conversation that was “heated” although for the life of me it looks like they are talking normally to me… We all need to remember these are two passionate guys trying to win a game… will they get carried away when talking to people? Yup! Do we all get carried away when discussing what we are passionate about? YUP!  With the hits that Favre took Peterson will get his chance to establish the run in order to slow the pass rush.

Frank Gore (SF) – The 49ers offense has been striving for balance lately and they have a really soft defense to practice on this week.  Anyone you have from the 9ers is worth a start and an upgrade from how you would normally use them.

Cedric Benson (CIN) - Jerome Harrison just had the third biggest rushing performance in NFL history and Benson had been one of the most often used backs in the league despite missing two games with an injury.  He is set to have a great game this week and could possibly top 200 yards himself.

Beanie Wells (ARI) – Wells broke a hundred yards last week and might well do it again as they face the terrible Rams.

Ryan Grant (GB) – Two weeks ago he had a breakout game, and last week he held his own against a very stout rush defense.  This week its the struggling Lions that might be without Stafford, which means that the offense wont even be able to allow their defense to rest.

Fred Jackson (BUF) - With the Bills turning their failed hopes and dreams to a new QB this week there is no downside here.  Either he is inconsistent and can’t often utilize all the offensive weapons, or Brian Brohm’s mobility helps him extend plays and make positives out of negatives.  Early in this game you have to expect them to try to get going on the ground.  This would help Brohm find a rhythm and get going at his own pace.  Freddie just eeked out a top 20 spot this week, or will have once my updated ranks come out  against the 20th ranked rushing defense allowing 118 yards per game!  (Oh and you faithful few actually reading during the very beginning… you remember? just read the Terrell Owens section)

Jason Snelling (ATL) – I don’t see Turner rushing back after a third straight ankle injury, so the guy that is proven to get the most carries in his absence is Snelling.  This Bills defense is the worst in the league against the run, and they are very picky through the air.  I don’t have any idea why you would drop back to pass unless you absolutely had to against the Bills.

Michael Crabtree (SF) - He’s been more and more a part of the offense since he came onto the team, and there will be plenty of yards to be shared this Sunday.

Steve Smith (CAR) - Ever since Matt Moore has started taking the snaps Smith has been relevant again.  All them INTs clearly had Delhomme too afraid to take a chance and let that stud

Brent Celek (PHI) – The Broncos have a strong enough defense that they can limit DeSean Jackson’s chances deep.  In order to do this they are going to have to drop 3 back deep almost every play and Celek should have a big day over the middle.

Vernon Davis (SF) – Davis is making a bid to be considered the top TE in football this season.  He’s among the top TD catchers in the league and is facing the Lions, gotta love it!

Hate

Visanthe Shaincoe – I’ve said it before, Bears linebackers are very good at covering TE’s.

Matt Ryan – Bills shut down Brady fantasy-wise.

Ray Rice – Tone down expectations given the match-up.

Rashard Mendenhall – Tone down expectations given the match-up.

Kyle Orton – I would have a tough time starting Orton this week with the ball hawks in the secondary for Philly.

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