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Bengals at Ravens

I am fast becoming a huge Bengals fan.  I thought they were foolish for cutting Palmer from the team and holding out on trading him.  I thought they were forfeiting the season in favor of the future and didn’t quite understand why. Well, all their “questionable” decisions turned out to be the right one as they got a first round pick for Palmer by the end and maybe a second.  They are still a wild-card contender with Dalton and I’m not 100% that Palmer would have done as well as Dalton. I was very impressed with how well the Bengals D held up against the Steelers,  they gave the offense a chance to win and considering they were facing one of the top teams in the AFC, we have to take notice.  I am expecting Cinci to get an upset this week and bottle up Ray Rice for the most part.  If this game comes down to Flacco’s arm, I don’t think Baltimore will be able to score enough points to out-do Dalton, Green and Benson.  I look for more than each team’s fair share of turnovers and simply think that Cinci will do a better job of capitalizing on these possession changes and that makes all the difference in this one.  Expect a close, hard fought game. I am lowering my expectations of all offensive players in this game due to the quality of defense that we will see but Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin still should be started in their usual roles.  I expect AJ Green to play in this game and I believe that he is match-up proof and still should be good for a decent yardage total and a score as well. This will be a must-watch game for true football fans and people who like stout defenses.

Titans at Falcons

Christmas came early for the Titans when Matt Schaub was lost for the regular season.  Tennessee has a serious chance to make a push for the division title but has a very tough game this week on the road against the Falcons.  This season Atlanta has not been such a powerhouse on their home-turf but there is no denying that they still do play considerably better at home.  I was very impressed with how well the Falcons shut down the running game of the Saints and I expect them to do the same this week.  This game will be decided on the arm of Matt Hasselbeck.  He needs to be efficient pushing the ball down field despite how ineffective I expect Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer to be.  Damian Williams should be featured more as the #1 receiver and I think this will open up things for Nate Washington quite a bit and will really help him regain some of the fantasy-value he had when Kenny Britt was on the field.  Atlanta will be shoving Michael Turner down the Titans’ collective throat and limiting Hasselbeck’s chances to connect on that big-play.  Because I only see one of these teams being effective on the ground, I have to pick Atlanta to win this game.  I don’t think it is a blow-out, but I do believe that Atlanta will have control over the game from start to finish and it will be a fairly convincing victory for them.  Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner are all very solid starts this week and assuming Julio Jones does not play, Harry Douglas just may be a very sneaky flex-play this week as well.  I am using Nate Washington as a WR2 of flex play and only see CJ as a potential flex-play as well.  I would stay away from Damian Williams until we see how he does when opposing defenses are able to plan for him a bit more.

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Patriots at Jets

The AFC East is still up for grabs.  Brady and the Pats have already lost more games than they did during the entirety of last season and after losing the the Giants when they didn’t have their two top offensive weapons (Bradshaw and Nicks), I am starting to think they might not be as invincible as they’ve been in years past. Thankfully for them, I think they match up well against the Jets. Welker has not really had too much issue being productive against the Jets in the past and usually Revis does not follow him all over the field. Teams have had success against the Pats this season by locking into man-to-man coverage on the less than elite receiving corp of New England and sending as much pressure as possible at Brady.  In order to get the win, Sanchez needs to play a perfect game and not give up any turnovers. If he can do that, there will be plenty of yardage and opportunities to get points on the board.  The Pats secondary has been just awful this season and still may prove to be their Achilles heel, much like it was for the Texans last year. Brady and the Pats need to lean on Law Firm and the running game in order to limit the time that their defense can be out there giving away the game.  I like the Patriots to win a high scoring affair after New York gets off to a slow start and is unable to catch up.  Welker and Brady are must-starts despite the less than appealing match-up but you should stay away from Deion Branch.  Upgrade Sanchez and the Jets receivers going against the NFL’s worst pass defense and feel free to use Shonn Greene in his typical RB2 role.

Saints at Falcons

Atlanta sits a game behind the Saints for first in the NFC  south and with the game being at home, I like Atlanta in this game.  They need to get back to running most of their offense through Michael Turner so that Roddy White and Julio Jones are able to see more man-to-man coverage and make big plays. Neither team has a scary defense that should make you concerned about giving them a start this week.  Atlanta needs to find a way to slow the Saints’ pass rush and and Turner is their best bet to do so.  Once they are able to bring the 8th man into the box, their receivers will be able to make the difference and get the win.  This game could easily go either way but Matt Ryan is almost a completely different quarterback at home and the Saints lack the depth at receiver to exploit Atlanta’s secondary. Start all your typical players with confidence as this is not likely going to be a low scoring affair but do NOT expect a repeat performance from Julio Jones, who I anticipate being a very hit or miss player for his fantasy owners.  I am considering him as a very good flex play for the rest of the season unless he is able to consistently hit double digit points.

Lions at Bears

Don’t worry I won’t make  a joke about Tigers here, but this game should make a HUGE difference later on as the NFC wild card spots start to get figured out.  I think we all expect the Packers to win the NFC North and I would be surprised if at least one more team from the division didn’t make the playoffs.  Detroit is up a game on the Bears at the moment and getting this win would be huge for their playoff hopes this season. Detroit’s front seven has slipped in recent weeks and their issues with stopping the run has caused them to have issues late in games when they had been able to be so effective early on this season. Unfortunately for them they face Matt Forte this week and he has been simply incredible for the Bears.  For the past few weeks the Bears’ offensive line has been playing much improved football and when Jay Cutler has time to throw, this Bears offense is very difficult to stop and the Lions’ secondary has not been playing that great either. This is a very difficult game to predict the outcome for however with the Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson connection being near impossible to stop.  I wouldn’t use a Lions receiver outside of Megatron unless I absolutely needed to and I also am downgrading the Lions’ running backs.  If Best can play, which I doubt, I wouldn’t think he would see his normal workload and Maurice Morris is not quite good enough to run wild against the Bears stout defense. I like Chicago to win this close game and Cutler has a relatively clean jersey at the end of the game.

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Studs

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – You drafted him for consistency and that is why he has stayed at the top of my rankings all this time.  Many of his owners were upset that he hasn’t had a really big game yet this season. So please, stop now! Three TD’s in the first quarter definitely qualifies as a HUGE game and was enough to earn more fantasy points than any other player in week 5.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – About time right? Ben finally blew up and threw for 5 TD’s and 1 INT on Sunday to go along with his 228 yards. Most impressively was completing 25 of 35 passes with a poor offensive line protecting him. He was never someone I would consider dropping and I won’t let one game pull him outta the doghouse, but if he can get back to 20+ fantasy points next week I will have to bring him back into the top 8 or so at QB.

Matt Cassel, QB, KC – Cassel waited until roughly every single fantasy owner had jumped ship and dropped him to finally have a good game. Cassel threw for 257 yards with 4 TDs and was tied for the 2nd best fantasy QB of the week. This was a fluke. There is no need to go pick him up, but it does make me like Steve Breaston a little bit more. The bottom line is that unless Jackie Battle is able to keep up such a productive rushing attack, the passing game is just not going to be able to get going.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – I have a hard time viewing this as not a fluke. Maybe it’s because he beat me this past week with his 125 yards and 2 TDs, but it also might be because i’ve seen this before.  Garcon does a good job of getting open and has plenty of upside, but he is inconsistent and frequently struggles with drops. This is compounded by Painter being a consistency issue as well. The stars have been aligned for these two the past two weeks, but I couldn’t start Garcon next week unless I was desperate.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – There are a lot of people who want to call this a fluke. I will agree that the TD catch WAS a fluke, but Cruz is not. He led the Giants in targets with 11 last week and hasn’t been behind ANYONE other than Nicks since week 3. Eli trusts him and is looking for him.  Cruz is a play maker and as long as he is being thrown to, he will be able to keep putting up numbers. I think Cruz has passed Manningham in my rankings and I don’t see that changing. If you didn’t see the catch, make sure you watch it below. (I hope you don’t mind salsa music…)

Duds

Mike Williams, WR, TB – I guess it really is time to panic. The 49ers should have been a very beatable team for the Buccaneers, but instead Tampa Bay just got crushed. They couldn’t stop the run or the pass on defense and the offense was not able to get ANYTHING going. I can’t in good conscience keep him in my top 20 at WR any longer. You should be looking for a long term replacement, but don’t drop him from your team just yet.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – See Mike Williams.

Stevie Johnson, WR, BUF – I’m not worried at all about Johnson, but two points is lower than you were hoping for in week 5.  Whether they are winning or not, the Eagles have some great corner backs and I won’t even expect a big performance from a receiver against that group.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Walter definitely saw an increase in stats after Andre Johnson was inactive for week 5. I expected Jones to be the guy that filled in and I still think he will be the better start for the next few weeks. Walter is just not as good of a red zone target, though if it was a PPR league I would give the nod to Walter.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – I know it was against Green Bay, but the Falcon’s week 5 loss really makes me nervous. I thought they were a MUCH better team at home?! Michael Turner was the only guy that looked good for Atlanta in this game as Matt Ryan didn’t even pass 200 yards.

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