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Texans at Titans

Houston failed to run away with the division as I had thought they would and Tennessee actually sits in first at 3-2 with the Texans at 3-3.  The Titans got off to a VERY fast start when Kenny Britt was healthy and even with VERY limited production from Chris Johnson over the first three weeks. Johnson HAS had 12 fantasy points in two consecutive games to start to recoup some of his value but with where you drafted him and the size of his contract, I think we ALL can agree that one 100 yard rushing game is not good enough. Both defenses here are allowing just over 100 yards on the ground per game and I think that the Tate and Foster combo will prove to be too much for Tennessee to deal with.  Matt Schaub is listed as Questionable at the moment but assuming he plays, I like the Titans to win this game handily. I think Chris Johnson and Arian Foster are must starts this week, as per the usual. And Nate Washington and Jacoby Jones are viable plug-in guys for an owner in Bye week hell.  In deeper formats Hasselbeck might be OK, but this Texans secondary is legitimate under Wade Phillips and you should look elsewhere if possible.

Chargers at Jets

With the Chargers’ record being this good, this early and the fact that the Jets have gone to two straight AFC championship games… I could see this being a preview of the AFC Championship game.  One thing needs to happen in order for us to get to that point though; The Jets need to play a LOT better. Both on offense and defense, the Jets are not the team I thought they would be and it all starts with the running game. The recipe for playoff success is simple; Run the ball and stop the run. Obviously you need to be able to stretch the field vertically to compete with the Drew Brees’, Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s of the world, but nothing shuts these elite QBs down like a lot of time on the sideline. This is exactly why the Chargers are going to win this game and I am not convinced it will be close.  The Chargers are healthy on offense again with Antonio Gates looking to rejoin the list of Rivers’ targets on offense and the Bye week helped Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert get back into playing shape.  With two backs that are more productive than Shonn Greene and the Jets defense appearing unable to contain the running game, I think that we will see very limited fantasy production from all of your New York Jets.  The one guy I do want to start from New York is Santonio Holmes because of junk-time stats after the Chargers have already run away with it. Bye weeks might force you to use Greene, but I feel like you are hoping for a goal line carry or two here so that you can at least get a TD out of him. I think Mathews and Gates are in for big games for San Diego, but don’t expect too much from VJax and Rivers despite the fact that your going to be playing them.

Bears at Buccaneers

This game, if you didn’t know, is being played at Wembley Stadium in London. Tampa has made this trip to play in London and they learned a thing or two the last time they did it. Don’t travel to London late in the week and face jet lag as well as your opponent… Tampa has been in London since Monday and holding practices in England all week. Chicago waited until today to make the trip and as a result, I think Tampa Bay has a serious advantage in this game.  You couldn’t make me bench Matt Forte at all this season but since Cutler and his receivers are risky under ideal circumstances, just leave them on the bench this week. Mike Williams clings to a top 20 spot in the rankings despite his hugely disappointing season thus far, but if this advantage holds true, one step is all a receiver needs to beat coverage deep and Freeman is still more than good enough to to recoup his fantasy value.  Earnest Graham is worth a play to fill-in for a bye week despite the weak match-up should Blount sit and it looks like he will. You shouldn’t look to this game for any deep or sneaky plays, but you should see solid outings from the guys that you have been counting on all year long.  I think Tampa gets the win as the “home team” and stays on top of their division.

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Texans at Saints

There aren’t too many better places for the Texans to make a statement to the NFL than the Super Dome. Houston is 2-0 and quickly became the favorites to win the division when David Garrard was released from Jacksonville and Peyton Manning went under the knife before Week 1.  Houston is dying for a playoff birth and a big road win against Drew Brees and the Saints would really speak volumes about their chances in the post season.  Houston still needs to show me that their secondary can play far better than their embarrassing performance last season and keeping Drew Brees at bay is just the task that I want to see them face in order to convince me.  They have certainly showed signs of improvement this season and currently sit at #1 in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, but I do think that Brees and the Saints will prove to be too tall of a task for Wade Phillips’ defense and I actually thing both Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are quality plays this week with Colston still injured.  Ingram remains a bit of a stretch to start as he is still carving out his niche in this offense and Sproles has earned a fair share of playing time with his ability to make plays over the first two weeks. I do not think that Arian Foster is a sure-fire #1 back if he plays because after he had to come out in week 2, I expect the Texans to bring him back slowly. Schaub should do fine facing a very good defense with a very disruptive pass rush now that Owen Daniels seems to be rebounding to the reliable target that he was two years ago and despite Andre Johnson finally not being my top ranked receiver, but obviously he remains a must start and only fell to 3rd.

Packers at Bears

A rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game headlines the 4 o’clock  games this weekend and it has a lot of meaning for both teams.  The Bears are the defending division champs and the Packers are the defending Super Bowl champions.  The Bears are trying to establish themselves as a Super Bowl contender and beating Green Bay has been an issue for them recently and means a whole lot to Bears fans. I think that a Mike Martz offense has a serious chance to exploit this Green Bay secondary that has allowed back to back 400 yard passing games, one of which was by Cam Newton in his 2nd start ever.  The Bears defense has been playing well so far and should be able to contain the Packers offense enough to give the offense a chance.  I actually like the home team to win in an upset here.  Matt Forte produces more in the passing game than on the ground and as long as he keeps up this level on consistency, I don’t care how he does it.  Forte is fast becoming a top 10 fantasy running back because of his receiving ability like we haven’t seen since Brian Westbrook and is a must-start regardless of match-up until further notice. Johnny Knox remains the top receiving threat for fantasy owners on the Bears because of his speed and big-play ability, but he is a flex play at best.  Cutler is a good option this week in my opinion as there is a lot of tape of how to put up big numbers against the Packers in the air from the past two weeks and I really liked what I saw in the home opener against the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons.  There is no way the Packers go down without a fight and while I heavily downgraded the running backs for this week, you are starting Rodgers, Finley and Jennings no matter what happens and I can’t really argue with Jordy Nelson in the flex either if your in a deep format or short on receivers.

Patriots at Bills

I wasn’t going to take advantage of the opportunity to talk about my home town team, but the game really does just jump out at more than the rest of the games.  If you had to guess who the top scoring offense in the NFL was who would yo say? Patriots right? They aren’t even the top scoring offense in their division with Buffalo having 79, Detroit having 75 and the Pats sit in 3rd with 73.  It seems pretty obvious to me that the bubble is going to burst this week as the Patriots are a machine and the Bills are just not equipped to put up the number of points that are likely to be necessary to continue to out score Tom Brady. Buffalo fans are DYING to finally get a win over the Patriots (believe me) since the last time it happened was EIGHT YEARS AGO when they won 31-0 and came out to a blazing 5-1 start only to miss the playoffs.  I still have trouble seeing Buffalo doing much more than 7-9 and scaring some wild card teams late in the season.  One thing is apparent however, they may have found themselves a QB after all.  People were scratching their heads when Buffalo left the draft and then free agency without a new QB prospect and GM Buddy Nix and Head Coach Chan Gailey continued to reaffirm their confidence in the Amish Rifle (that’s Ryan Fitzpatrick if you didn’t guess by looking at his beard).  I am a lifelong Bills fan and I can’t honestly say that I ever considered Fitz to be a potential QB of the future, but this blazing fast start has me excited to see what he can do.  The Bills’ best hope for a huge upset is Fred Jackson.  He has led Buffalo top ranked rushing attack to an average of 193 yards over the first two games of the season.  If they can control the clock, keep Brady off the field and force a pair of timely turnovers, they just might do the unthinkable.  The probable scenario is that they find themselves playing from behind early, need to abandon the running game and they can’t win a blow for blow shootout with Tom Brady.  I am starting all the usual suspects with reasonably high expectations for a high scoring game.  The loss of Aaron Hernandez will mean an increase in targets for Gronkowski and Welker and I don’t have too high of expectations for the Law Firm or Woodhead because the Bills’ defensive front seven is vastly improved over what it was a season ago.

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It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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