Preseason Running Back Rankings 2.0: CJ Stays On Top

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Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Frank Gore
Ray Rice
Michael Turner
Steven Jackson
DeAngelo Williams
Rashard Mendenhall
Shonn Greene
Jamaal Charles
Ryan Grant
Cedric Benson
Ryan Mathews
Pierre Thomas
LeSean McCoy
Beanie Wells
Jahvid Best
Jonathan Stewart
Joseph Addai
Knowshon Moreno
Ronnie Brown
Matt Forte
Arian Foster
Felix Jones
Ahmad Bradshaw
Fred Jackson
Justin Forsett
CJ Spiller
Jerome Harrison
Ricky Williams
Clinton Portis
Reggie Bush
Marion Barber
Michael Bush
Brandon Jacobs
Carnell Williams
LaDainian Tomlinson
Donald Brown
Thomas Jones
Chester Taylor
Montario Hardesty
Darren Sproles
Tim Hightower
Darren McFadden
Steve Slaton
Laurence Maroney
Fred Taylor
Kareem Huggins
Marshawn Lynch

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Aug

2010

2010 Draft Analysis by Position: Running Backs

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This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend. Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs. Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down. When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs. The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered. Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year. This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson. There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it. 2000 yards is special, I want that on my team. Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles. I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback. If he was expected to miss time, we would know. Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams. I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now. With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year. I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3. Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR. I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season. Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team. Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly. I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it! This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries. There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24. Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets. This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know. Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense. This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches. Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties. I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart. Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense. He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots. Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season. I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy. Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason. He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06. Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position. He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game. Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake. Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s. Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back. Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does. If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year. He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team. It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in. Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league. I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to. They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract. Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them. The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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Aug

2010

NFL 2010 Preseason In Review: Week 2

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Week 2 of the preseason is in the books and fantasy football drafts are coming up rather quickly. As the preseason continues we all carry on our search for sleepers in this years draft.

Eagles vs Bengals

Kolb continues to look strong through week 2, but most surprising to me so far is the involvement of DeSean Jackson in the intermediate passing game. The primary reason for DJax not being a part of the elite group of receivers this year is that when McNabb left the team so did the deep ball. Not entirely, but not many people throw long balls like Donovan. Kolb has been making completions to Jackson over the middle and inside of 20 yards with much more frequency than McNabb did. This won’t upgrade Jackson in my rankings but it will hold him firm at number 9 and removes a lot of the doubt I had about his consistency. I have yet to see much of anything from LeSean McCoy and I am starting to expect very little from him. I recommend not taking the risk on McCoy on draft day, not when guys like Joseph Addai and Ronnie Brown should still be available in the next round.

My dislike for Carson Palmer is still growing after this last game. 2 interceptions and a bad decision that got his star receiver leveled in a preseason game. Good judgment. Also, there is a lot of talk about how well T.O. has done thus far. They are trying to get the fan base excited and as much as the fans may love 85, they won’t get excited about him catching balls in the preseason. My expectations for T.O. are for him to be marginally better than last season. Someone will be reaching for him on draft day, don’t let it be you. Lastly, I want to point out that Bernard Scott should never go undrafted this year (except for maybe 8 team leagues). He has performed well whenever given that chance and with Benson being such a workhorse he is bound to miss a game or two.

Redskins vs Ravens

Even though the ‘Skins were only able to put a field goal up on the board McNabb was able to demonstrate why players on this team will be fantasy-relevant again. Throughout his time in the game McNabb was able to use his play-making ability to extend drives and keep the defense rested. Being able to convert on third and long allows Portis to get more carries and receivers to get more catches and yards as well. McNabb allows this team to have more offensive plays in a game than Campbell or any other option available to them.

The Ravens looked flat this week, even with Ray Rice on the field. I am certainly not concerned about Flacco as the Redskins were among the better pass defenses in the league last year and they were a much worse team then they are now. The only player on the Ravens that I do have concerns about is Derrick Mason. He has been hobbled by leg injuries through camp, is getting older and saw only one target on Thursday. Flacco has a new toy to play with and he is good enough to make him forget that Mason is still on the field.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Henne is a great backup option for you this year. I think he will develop into a top 10 QB by the end of the season, but there could be some growing pains early. There weren’t any this week however… The Dolphins offense looked very strong and even incorporated Brandon Marshall quite nicely. Look for Anthony Fasano in the late rounds if you really want a backup TE. If anyone has the chance to do what Celek did last year, its this guy right here.

David Garrard was having a pretty good night before he got hurt and was pulled out of the exhibition game. I have seen very little about his injury since it happened which leads me to think it is minor. He has just enough skill to make Mike Sims-Walker a WR2 or flex play but Maurice Jones-Drew will remain the star of this offense.

Bears vs Raiders

We saw some good things from the Bears this week. Forte had a nice TD run of 89 yards, which is a great example of how a Mike Martz offense creates holes in the opposing defense. Cutler had a solid outing, no interceptions as well as finding Johnny Knox in the end zone in the second quarter.

The Raiders played good, solid football in all three phases of the game this week and won the game because of it. This is a sign of good coaching and a franchise on its way back to prominence. Not yet though, because there is not one receiver that can be relied on week-to-week.

Other Week 2 one-liners

Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are not to be taken lightly, they will perform in Vincent Jackson’s absence.

Ryan Mathews should be a consistent performing RB2.

The Cowboys will have a few bad offensive games until they solidify their offensive line.

Miles Austin will produce consistently anyway.

Thomas Jones – 3.63 YPC and a fumble, Jamaal Charles 5 YPC and 23 yards receiving… Stop drafting Thomas Jones above round 8 or 9.

Mike Williams should be drafted in a 12 team league.

Arrelious Benn should not be.

Hasselbeck has something left in the tank, but it’s not what it used to be.

Aaron Rodgers really should be everyone’s number 1 ranked Quarterback.

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Aug