2010 Draft Analysis by Position: Running Backs

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend. Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs. Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down. When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs. The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered. Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year. This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson. There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it. 2000 yards is special, I want that on my team. Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles. I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback. If he was expected to miss time, we would know. Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams. I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now. With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year. I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3. Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR. I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season. Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team. Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly. I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it! This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries. There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24. Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets. This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know. Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense. This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches. Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties. I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart. Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense. He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots. Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season. I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy. Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason. He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06. Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position. He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game. Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake. Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s. Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back. Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does. If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year. He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team. It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in. Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league. I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to. They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract. Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them. The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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Aug

2010

2010 Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Preview

POSTED BY Big Jim | 1 Comment »

The Falcons are one of three teams in their division that have the tools at their disposal to make the playoffs. They are coming off their second consecutive winning season (franchise first) and after a slight decline in Matt Ryan’s production last year there is considerable pressure on the third year quarterback. Last season this team was plagued with injuries to their top performers and this ultimately kept them from seriously competing for a playoff spot. Michael Turner disappointed many owners by not being able to stay healthy going into the fantasy playoffs and due to this I have seen him fall to late in the first round. Do not be fooled he is the 6th ranked player overall and he has plenty of value that deep as it is. Missing the playoffs last season was a by-product of injuries and growing pains, I fully expect to see growth from this young emerging team.

Fantasy Relevant Players

Michael Turner – As I said he is my number 6 ranked player, I expect at least 1200 yards from Turner this year and if he can stay healthy for all 16 games he could come close the the 1600 in his breakout year in 2008. As a side note, If you are interesting in drafting a handcuff for Turner you want Jason Snelling, not Jerious Norwood.

Roddy White – His statistical destiny is in the hands of Matt Ryan. I like his odds. With that said I hope to have drafted one of the receivers ranked in that elite group of five that are above him. If you are not able to get one of them while he has some risk attached White is the best option.

Matt Ryan – In plenty of the mock drafts I have seen and participated in Ryan has fallen down to around the 10th drafted at his position. He is not someone I would target on draft day, but if he slips and you miss out on Flacco then Ryan had plenty of upside.

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