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Giants at Cowboys

If your a football fan, you have to watch this game.  The Giants and Cowboys have to play each other twice still and Dallas has just a one game lead for first place in the NFC East. New York lost to the Packers last week and the Cowboys had a HUGE opportunity to go up by two games against the Arizona Cardinals but they blew it and lost in overtime.  The Giants have had a lot of trouble stopping opposing running backs over the past month to month and a half as teams have really forced the running game in an effort to slow the elite pass rush of New York. Last week the Cowboys made a concerted effort to get Felix Jones more involved and this limited the number of carries that DeMarco Murray saw.  This strategy led to a disappointing performance for both backs and by the end of the game, it was back to the DeMarco Murray show but it was just too late. On the flip-side the Giants have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL and fantasy-owners can go ahead and expect the top 10 performances of both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to continue against a very average Cowboys secondary that is currently ranked 14th in the league. The bottom line for fantasy owners is that all the offensive players that you have been starting have to be started again.  Some crazy things happen when two NFC East teams face off and when the playoff implications are THIS high, I think we can expect more of a shoot-out than a defensive struggle over field position.  Miles Austin should be active in this game assuming he finds a way to practice without a setback but I think the Cowboys will continue to use Laurent Robinson in some of the 2 wide receiver sets.  I like the Cowboys to squeak out a win here after such a disappointing game last week with a heavy dose of DeMarco Murray in the running game to keep Eli Manning and his slew of receivers on the sideline.

Texans at Bengals

I hope you like defense because your going to see it in this game.  Despite adding Jake Delhomme and Jeff Garcia to the roster, Houston will continue to start T.J. Yates at QB and rely on him limiting mistakes and taking what the Bengals defense give him.  This game will be about field position and field goals and as a result, you have to downgrade all your fantasy options out of this game.  Arian Foster and A.J. Green remain must-starts due to their track record of performing admirably regardless of match up and to a lesser extent, Cedric Benson also retains enough value to be a decent starter this week.  A.J. Green has been incredibly consistent and has been able to beat every secondary deep with one exception, The 49ers back in week 3.  Houston’s defense has been great this season and is one of the best that Green will have to play this season but after remaining a top 10 receiver against the Steelers twice and the Browns, who are surprisingly the best pass defense in the NFL so far this season, I am not going to bench him now.  Andy Dalton however is not likely to do much more than find Green on one big play so I would definitely look elsewhere as opposed to starting Dalton. Anyone not mentioned needs to be left on your bench unless they are a kicker and even the guys that are mentioned as starters anyways are easily capable of being a disappointment so tread carefully and hope your studs come out of this game with a decent number of points.  I like the Bengals to win this CLOSE game because they are mildly able to pass the ball and eventually Benson will wear out this Texans defense.

Bears at Broncos

Speaking of defensive match-ups… The offense-less Bears are facing off against the story of the past month named Tim Tebow.  Tebow has just been winning games in whatever way has been available to him.  This game could easily be 6-3 going into the 4th quarter (or Tebow-time) and yet by the time it is all said and done, Tebow should be in the area of 20 fantasy points.  Regardless of how well Tebow plays, his ability to run the ball for positive yardage every time he tries translates into a very consistent fantasy QB.  Most leagues also only give 4 points for a passing TD so when Tebow runs one in, it means an extra 2 points.  Tebow remains a top 10 guy for fantasy owners and Willis McGahee is also a very quality RB2 option despite the rough match up.  I think the grind-it-out style of the Broncos will eventually break the Bears D after their offense gets almost nothing accomplished on the game.  I wouldn’t start a single Bear on offense unless you lost Forte and are desperate for an RB, then you can play Barber but do NOT expect much at all from him. Eric Decker is still a poor flex-play option for standard leagues as he is the most likely of the Broncos receivers to catch a deep ball.  Make Thomas have a big game in consecutive weeks before you risk starting him in the playoffs. The Broncos continue their unpredictable run for the divisional title and win this one.

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Studs

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – It isn’t often that Andy Reid lets a back see 30 carries, but I am not sure he has ever had one as good as McCoy. I thought that he was mostly just an edge rusher and receiving threat and that is what Reid likes from a RB.  He has proved me wrong this season and continues to impress after 185 yards and 2 TDs on the ground this week.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Smith now has five 100 yard receiving performances this season.  He is a top 10 receiver with Cam Newton at QB and has just been a draft day steal for all of his fantasy owners.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL – Jackson is too good to have been on your bench this week, even though we all expected a rout by New Orleans and limited carries because of a need to pass the ball.  Well that didn’t happen as the Rams upset the Saints in a big way on Sunday and Jackson was the key to this win.

Bills, D/ST, BUF – The one knock on this opportunistic defensive unit has been pressure on the QB.  Going into this week, they had the lowest sack total in the NFL with 4.  They had NINE sacks this week against Washington and forced 2 interceptions as they shut out the Redskins. Beck had a rough day and this was the first time in history that a Mike Shanahan team has been shut out. Impressive game by the Bills after coming off the bye week, which has spelled disaster for most teams this season.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – After posting 134 yards on 31 carries and scoring a TD this week, Gore has 4 straight games of over 125 yards AND a TD. Impressive after such a lack-luster start. The 49ers offense is forcing the ball down the throat of opposing defenses and I don’t see their strategy changing over the rest of this season. You HAVE to keep Gore in your lineup.

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – Nate had two scores in this game and it was by far his best game since Kenny Britt was hurt and he reached the top of the depth chart at wide receiver. I credit this to Javon Ringer bringing a balance to the Titan offense as he split carries evenly with Chris Johnson.

Duds

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – Terrible call by me on Law Firm this week. In my defense, NO ONE saw Kevin Faulk’s return as a threat to Law Firm’s workload. Neither Ridley or Woodhead even saw a touch in this game and Faulk had over twice the touches that Green-Ellis did. Fantasy owners hate you too Coach Belichick.

Philip Rivers, QB, SD – The only reason that Rivers hasn’t been the biggest bust of the 2011 season is because Chris Johnson was a first round pick.  They have both been equally as bad.  Rivers has been out scored by Colt McCoy, Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. Ouch.  No excuse this week as all his receiving weapons are finally healthy.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Admittedly the entire Cowboys offense was bad this week, but we have come to expect Austin to be a top 10 receiver and in the past two weeks he has been far from.  I was surprised to see Austin in the slot so much this week, with Robinson playing on the outside in three receiver sets. This was probably an effort to get a more favorable matchup for Austin and I expect Dallas to make a point to get Austin back involved in a big way against Seattle this week.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – The Skins are just falling apart and with Torain being injury prone, I expect Helu to take over the lion’s share of the carries VERY soon.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – The Steelers provided a very nice road map for how to shut down Brady and the Pats offense.  Play man-to-man and load up 8 or 9 people around the line of scrimmage.  The Pats don’t have an elite receiver that can go out there and beat man-coverage on a regular basis.  I am not worried about any Patriots down the road though.  Not many teams have the personnel on defense to execute this strategy like Pittsburgh does.

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Cowboys at Eagles

Dallas has been a very inconsistent team this season.  Half the time Romo looks like a hero and the other half he looks like a scapegoat. Philadelphia has the opposite problem.  They have been consistently awful all season long!  They struggle to stop the run on defense and they also have not been able to keep from turning the ball over on offense. Offensive production in terms of points and yardage have never been the issue, but they just simply have not been able to overcome the turn overs.  I expect Dallas to lean on DeMarco Murray to take full advantage of the Eagles undersized defensive front and inability to contain the running game.  Because of Murray, the Cowboys should be able to keep Vick and the Eagles high-flying offense on the sideline and control the clock.  Dallas also has the ability to go deep with Austin and Bryant at receiver so this should be a great game regardless of who wins. I slightly downgrade the Cowboys ground game and think Murray is a must-start as an RB2 for this week. The Dallas defense is not good enough to make me downgrade any of the Eagles and you should still be starting all the usual suspects despite the losing streak. I like Dallas to win a close game with a heavy dose of the run game.

Patriots at Steelers

Brady has historically had no trouble passing against the Steelers and Pittsburgh has no one that can contain Welker, but I expect the run game to be a big part of New England’s plan this week.  Law Firm has been running strong the past couple of weeks and Ridley has been coming along as his primary backup.  With two quality runners and a Steelers defense that has been pretty mediocre against the run, Brady will probably not stick to the pass too much.  I think that the Steelers passing game should be in a for a big day.  Roethlisberger has not had much time to throw this season but then again, the Patriots have not been able to get much pressure on the QB or cover receivers in the vertical passing game.  Mike Wallace is an absolute MUST start in this match up and if you have Big Ben, you likely do not have a better option either. Welker and Brady have just been too good this season to bench ever too and I think New England squeaks out a win in a VERY close game.

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Studs

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – What more can you say other than “WOW”. 25 carries for 115 yards and 2 TDs was not enough for Foster, he had to throw in 119 yards and a score in the receiving game.  Fantasy owners appreciated it and there isn’t too much to say here. Foster is an elite fantasy RB. When Andre Johnson is back, defenses will not be able to stack eight in the box to stop him.

Chiefs, D/ST, KC – The Raiders were a comedy of errors this week and only some of it was their fault.  They recognized that Palmer was not going to be effective on such short notice and tried not to use him.  But Boller was just awful and when Darren McFadden left the game, there was just no chance for success. I do not trust the Chiefs defense without a sweet match up at all the rest of the way, but this has me relatively confident in their ability to be serviceable against a bad offense.

DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL – This just feels like how Adrian Peterson burst onto the scene doesn’t it? Odds are that is not the case and he will just settle in as a decent RB2 but when talking about upside, this is the potential that exists with Murray. I am very confident that you have a new RB2 if you picked this guy up however. The Cowboys have been itching for an effective running game for some time and Felix Jones has not been getting it done.  If Murray can produce this weekend with a great match up against Philly, I think he will be the feature back even when Jones comes back.  To put this in historical perspective, there have been 9 players in NFL history to gain 250 yards rushing in a game and 8 of them have then had multiple 1,000 yard seasons in their career. Jerome Harrison is the odd man out.  Great pick up last week if you got him!

Marques Colston, WR, NO – Colston has been great since coming back off injury.  This game was a joke and the Saints were just scoring at will so I do not think that this can continue, but you have to start this guy every week.  Colston had 7 targets and 7 catches this week for 98 yards and two scores. I LOVE when a guy catches 100% of the passes that come his way and I have a feeling Drew Brees does too.

Tim Tebow, QB, DEN – My advice to pick up and start Tebow this week had nothing to do with a belief that he is a savior sent from the University of Florida to destroy the NFL and bring championships to the Broncos. Those people are insane.  It had to do with his style of play translating well to fantasy points.  There is a lot to be said about a QB that will have 50 yards rushing and essentially serves as the goal line back for his team (Cam Newton owners can also explain this to you).  Tebow played terribly for around 55 minutes in this game and still managed to be the 5th highest scoring QB of the week.

Plaxico Burress, WR, NYJ – I’m not going to justify this performance with any more than saying it was a fluke.  He only caught 4 passes for 25 yards. You can’t rely on even ONE TD from such few receptions and yardage, let alone THREE!

Duds

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – San Diego tried to get the ball to Jackson while he spent the day on Revis Island but they were unsuccessful. VJax saw eight targets and was only able to haul in one catch for 15 yards.  I have no concerns down the stretch, but I would have liked to see him be more productive considering that Matt Moore and Brandon Marshall were able to get it done last week against Revis.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – I am so shocked that Baltimore laid an egg on Monday night that I want to list every last start-able Raven here, but I wont. Teams coming off the Bye this year have done pretty badly thus far and I blame the new rules. Teams are barely allowed to practice and players can only show up to the facilities a couple of days on the week off.  I am not sure when this stopped being “professional” football players, but I won’t be expecting a good game from too many players coming off the bye week anymore.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I can’t believe it, but CJ has just been awful and is about to fall completely out of the top 20.  There is no bigger bust for 2011 and you should look to find a replacement.  Don’t drop him yet though unless there are NO other options and Murray is available.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – With Austin and Bryant competing for targets and DeMarco Murray running like a mad man, I am not surprised that Austin had a bad game.  I still like him more than Bryant, but one more week of such anemic stats and that will change.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – I am at a loss about Mendenhall’s spotty performance this season.  I do not think we can consider him a top 10 guy but Arizona is a decent rush defense and bad secondary, so I don’t think we can expect such a pass-heavy offense down the stretch. Especially with that poor offensive line.

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – I thought Decker would be the top receiver for Denver, at least while Demaryius Thomas got back into the rhythm of things.  It apparently did not take long for that to happen.  Thomas will be my top ranked Broncos receiver for week 8.

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Love

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Run DMC tops my RB rankings this week with a great matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City is allowing an average of 105 yards per game and a TD to opposing running backs. And I think we can all agree that McFadden is better than your average back. I think Oakland is going to lean heavily on the running game while they break in Carson Palmer at QB, so Michael Bush should see a slight increase in carries this week as well.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – The Vultures are circling in Dallas as they do every time the Cowboys have a losing record and they sit at 2-3. I am not concerned that much about them personally as Romo is a gunslinger and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it backfires. They lost to a clearly awful Patriots team last week (seriously, are we supposed to hold this against Jason Garrett or Romo?) and have a really tough match up against the Rams this week, who are 0-5. In all seriousness, you can’t bench Austin or Dez Bryant this week against a team allowing an average of 28.4 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers (worst in the NFL).

Tim Tebow, QB, MIA – I can barely believe it, but I have Tebow at the 10th spot in my rankings this week. He plays against Miami whose offense has trouble staying on the field between turnovers (-7 on the season) and the worst 3rd down efficiency in the NFL (they are converting on a pathetic 24% of third downs).  Tebow no longer has Brandon Lloyd to throw to, but it is his rushing ability that gets him to crack my top 10.  He is not likely to have a large passing total but with his ability to rush the ball, he should be able to have a pretty nice game and earn a win for his Broncos.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – The concern with Wells has always been durability, so while he is healthy I think he has to be started. It looks like a bad match up against Pittsburgh this week, but looks can be deceiving. The Steelers have allowed three different opposing running backs to reach 100 yards this season and even Indy was able to put up 97 yards with their time-share situation.

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT – Wallace has stayed a quality fantasy receiver despite the lack of pass protection and the Cardinals have struggled to stop #1 wide receivers. They allowed very good games to Steve Smith (CAR), Sidney Rice, Hakeem Nicks and Santana Moss so far and I think Wallace is more talented than all of these guys.

Kellen Winslow, TE, TB – Winslow has failed to produce stats on a consistent basis, but his talent really should not be up for debate.  The Buccs offense has struggled at times and they certainly do not feature the TE.  This week however, I do not think you can afford to bench Winslow. He plays against a good Chicago defense that appears to be weak against opposing tight ends. The Bears are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.8 points per game) and Freeman will very likely need his safety valve receivers against this pass rush.

Hate

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – The Sanchize has been good for fantasy owners for the most part this season and when he wasn’t, we were able to see if coming from a mile away (i.e. that TERRIBLE game against Baltimore). This week he faces Philip Rivers and the Chargers and I see another bad game coming. The Jets want to pass to set up the run now and I don’t see Sanchez as good enough to pull this off against a good defense. I feel like the Jets are built to run a ground and pound offense still and think San Diego pulls off another win this week.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – The only thing that has Williams clinging to the top 20 in my ranks is the bye weeks. The guys on bye that I would start over Williams (if they were playing obviously) are Steve Johnson, AJ Green, Wes Welker, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. You’ve probably gotta play him, but I would hope you arent expecting too much from a guy that has been a huge disappointment thus far.

Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE – I haven’t heard that Hillis is definitely out this week, so I ranked both players. This drops them both from where they would be if we already knew but either way, I don’t want to start Hardesty unless I have to. Seattle is surprisingly 5th best in the NFL at fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs and have a better run defense than people seem to realize.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he did ok, but you should not expect a career game this week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – Jacoby Ford is still the guy I want to play this week and it’s still because they use him in a wider variety of ways.  With a new QB that hasn’t played a down all season so far, I expect Oakland to lean on the running game and Ford is used in a lot of different packages and scenarios to try and get him the ball in open space. He is the second best play-maker on this offense after McFadden and something tells me that Kansas City will have their eye on DMC a lot. I don’t expect much from the aerial attack in Oakland this week.

Tashard Choice, RB, DAL – Even with the bye weeks, I am not too big on either of the fill-in RBs for Dallas this week. The one I want to play is Murray though.  Last week, Murray saw twice the carries that Choice did and with Jerry Jones shopping Choice around for a possible trade, I’d like to think they give Murray the lion’s share of the work this week. Both guys are decent plays if you are desperate though, just don’t expect too much.

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Bills at Giants

I am very excited to watch my Bills play this weekend as they go on the road to face Eli Manning and the Giants. The last time Buffalo played on the road they were beat by an inferior Bengals team as Fitzpatrick struggled against a stout defense.  The Giants defensive front is phenomenal and finally healthy. Jason Pierre-Paul is quietly having a breakout season and with Osi Umenyiora back, the Bills’ offensive line is in for a long day. It will be up to Scott Chandler and the running backs to aid in protection because if they can give Fitzpatrick time, Steve Johnson and David Nelson will be able to get open. Terrence McGee will finally be on the field after injuring his hamstring in the season opener and this is very good news for Bills fans. The Giants have one of the best wide receiver trio’s in the NFL now that Victor Cruz has emerged as a play maker. Hakeem Nicks is one of the best red zone targets in the NFL and Manningham is a very complete receiver with great hands who runs very crisp routes. The story of this game will be simple: turnovers. Buffalo’s secondary has been incredibly opportunistic and has forced 4 INTs from both Tom Brady and Michael Vick this season. Eli Manning had issues with turnovers last week against the Seahawks, throwing 3 interceptions. If the Giants want to win this game, they have to protect the football and pressure Fitzpatrick.  Rookie Chris Hairston has a tall-task in his second start filling in for the injured Demetrius Bell at left tackle, but nothing slows down the pass rush like an effective run game and I like Buffalo to win a close game this week on the shoulders of Fred Jackson.  I would not sit any of your fantasy players in this game because these offenses are not going to be stopped completely. Eli Manning remains an good QB2 option, but I am too nervous about him throwing too many INTs to start him in standard leagues. Ahmad Bradshaw has the best match up here and will see a lot of use unless the game gets out of hand. David Nelson makes a very nice flex play because the loss of Donald Jones should lead to an increase in targets for Nelson.

Cowboys at Patriots

This game should be an entertaining one to say the least. Tony Romo is always the deciding factor in big games for the Cowboys, he either makes unbelievable game winning plays or bonehead mistakes that hand the game to his opponent. Maybe it’s wishful thinking as a Bills fan but I think that with an extra week to prepare and Miles Austin back in the lineup, the Cowboys will be able to squeak out a victory in a nail-biter. The deciding factor for me is on defense; in the last 5 years no one has tallied more sacks than DeMarcus Ware who tallied 72 in that time frame. Of the two defenses, Dallas’ is the one that I think has the best chance to impact the game and force a couple turnovers. The smart money is certainly on New England because Dallas is not going to be able to contain Wes Welker and Tom Brady WILL score points. Neither defense is a scary match up for fantasy owners of all players in this game. I think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are must starts along with Wes Welker who is on pace to break a few records this season. Tom Brady and Tony Romo should both be started with confidence as well but I don’t know as though any running back will have a huge game here. Each team has a weak secondary and plays a pass-first style of offense.

49ers at Lions

San Francisco has really impressed me after a slow start on offense. An easy schedule and a few timely punt returns have gotten them off to a 4-1 start and they have really started to impress me over the past two weeks on offense.  Alex Smith is playing smart and safe football and Frank Gore has been over 100 yards for the past two games. Detroit has been almost perfect over the first 5 games and they look to remain undefeated. This game will need to be won in the trenches. Detroit has invested a lot of high draft picks on their defensive line and San Francisco has invested their recent draft picks in their offensive line.  So far this season these young groups of lineman have been a huge part of their teams success and I think whoever wins THIS match up wins this football game. San Francisco has to keep Stafford and Megatron on the bench with a heavy dose of Frank Gore. Carlos Rogers is playing the best football of his life for the 9ers and has a pick in three straight games after returning one for a TD last week. I actually like San Fran to win a close game with a big play on defense giving them the edge. You have to start all your Detroit Lions though; Jahvid Best will be one of the best RB2 options for fantasy owners until he gets hurt and Calvin Johnson is by far the best receiver in the NFL for fantasy-purposes. Matthew Stafford is a very viable starter, but I don’t think he has too much big-game potential against this defense.   Alex Smith is an option in a pinch for 2 QB leagues if your having bye week issues, but I would stay away if possible.

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