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Studs

Drew Brees, QB, NO – The Saints are still clicking on all cylinders and Drew Brees really put any concerns to rest that may have come from their narrow victory in Tennessee. Brees completed 32 of 40 passes for 412 yards and 5 scores in a dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings.  Brees has finished the year incredibly well and especially considering that he saved his best football for the playoffs. He has catapulted thousands of mediocre teams to the championship game with his past two performances.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – McCoy is most likely going to be #2 in my MVP race for the 2011 Fantasy Football season.  Aaron Rodgers is almost a lock and Drew Brees is simply out playing Rodgers in the playoffs as of right now but no one has had the consistency of McCoy outside of the QB position. Another 100 yard game and 3 TDs. Welcome to your Super Bowl.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – It is very possible that Calvin Johnson owners survived last week in the playoffs and were still in the hunt for a championship title but plenty, myself included, are not. Regardless, Oakland was not able to answer the duo of Megatron and Matthew Stafford who were in 2nd and 3rd place for total fantasy points in week 15. This duo will be a nightmare should the Lions right the ship and finish strong enough to make the post-season.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – The Dolphins have had some considerable success stopping the run and that has been a big part of their recent turn-around. C.J. Spiller had a break out performance this week despite only 12 carries.  Spiller had 91 yards and a score on the ground and complimented this performance with another 9 catches, 76 yards and a score.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – White has been somewhat of a disappointment this season despite finishing strong with this week being his 5th straight game with double digit points and best game of the season this week.  10 catches for 135 yards and 2 TDs. Obviously you can’t expect too many games like this but I didn’t think it would take until week 15 for his first one!  Nice to see if his fantasy owners are still alive and White has been playing well for a few weeks and just may have given you a late push into the post season.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – Brown averaged just over 10 yards per rush in the Colts’ first win of the season.  He totaled 161 yards and had an 80 yard TD run at the end to close out the game.  You weren’t starting him but anyone that can get the Colts a win is worth mentioning.

Duds

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – Just 3 catches for 8 yards is a HUGE disappointment for a guy that went on a hot streak as soon as the best offensive weapon of the Vikings went down with injury.  Peterson came back and Harvin did absolutely nothing.  He was even targeted 7 times in the passing game and there is no excuse for his inability to get one fantasy point.  If you made it into the Super Bowl with Harvin on your team you need to seriously consider sending Harvin to the bench.

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – Your season is over Eli owners. Eli outscored just one QB that started this week so far and that was Blaine Gabbert.  Two different Titan QBs were either tied or better than Eli and you were better off playing T.J. Yates, Dan Orlovsky, Tavaris Jackson, Seneca Wallace or even Caleb Hanie.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – People don’t give Champ Bailey any credit but I will when I rank Stevie Johnson next week.  Bailey held Welker to 4 fantasy points and while you can survive a bad game from a WR or RB, the playoffs isn’t where you want these games from your studs.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – He averaged 6 yards per carry but only had 10 touches. You need more than 6 points from your number one overall draft pick in the playoffs and more importantly to me, the Viking offense lost a spark when they got their best player back.  Toby Gerhart and Percy Harvin were both getting carries the past few weeks and Gerhart was getting better numbers than Peterson did this week and Harvin completely disappeared.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – All of the Packer receivers were targeted just 4 times in this game but Nelson was the guy that needed to step up and fill-in for Greg Jennings and he was not able to get it done against Brandon Flowers and the Chiefs.  Jermichael Finley stepped up big-time with 10 targets and the best yardage total but Donald Driver got the score.  At the end of the day, Rodgers had over 20 fantasy points and that isn’t really that bad, despite what his average on the season is.

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Bengals at Ravens

I am fast becoming a huge Bengals fan.  I thought they were foolish for cutting Palmer from the team and holding out on trading him.  I thought they were forfeiting the season in favor of the future and didn’t quite understand why. Well, all their “questionable” decisions turned out to be the right one as they got a first round pick for Palmer by the end and maybe a second.  They are still a wild-card contender with Dalton and I’m not 100% that Palmer would have done as well as Dalton. I was very impressed with how well the Bengals D held up against the Steelers,  they gave the offense a chance to win and considering they were facing one of the top teams in the AFC, we have to take notice.  I am expecting Cinci to get an upset this week and bottle up Ray Rice for the most part.  If this game comes down to Flacco’s arm, I don’t think Baltimore will be able to score enough points to out-do Dalton, Green and Benson.  I look for more than each team’s fair share of turnovers and simply think that Cinci will do a better job of capitalizing on these possession changes and that makes all the difference in this one.  Expect a close, hard fought game. I am lowering my expectations of all offensive players in this game due to the quality of defense that we will see but Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin still should be started in their usual roles.  I expect AJ Green to play in this game and I believe that he is match-up proof and still should be good for a decent yardage total and a score as well. This will be a must-watch game for true football fans and people who like stout defenses.

Titans at Falcons

Christmas came early for the Titans when Matt Schaub was lost for the regular season.  Tennessee has a serious chance to make a push for the division title but has a very tough game this week on the road against the Falcons.  This season Atlanta has not been such a powerhouse on their home-turf but there is no denying that they still do play considerably better at home.  I was very impressed with how well the Falcons shut down the running game of the Saints and I expect them to do the same this week.  This game will be decided on the arm of Matt Hasselbeck.  He needs to be efficient pushing the ball down field despite how ineffective I expect Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer to be.  Damian Williams should be featured more as the #1 receiver and I think this will open up things for Nate Washington quite a bit and will really help him regain some of the fantasy-value he had when Kenny Britt was on the field.  Atlanta will be shoving Michael Turner down the Titans’ collective throat and limiting Hasselbeck’s chances to connect on that big-play.  Because I only see one of these teams being effective on the ground, I have to pick Atlanta to win this game.  I don’t think it is a blow-out, but I do believe that Atlanta will have control over the game from start to finish and it will be a fairly convincing victory for them.  Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner are all very solid starts this week and assuming Julio Jones does not play, Harry Douglas just may be a very sneaky flex-play this week as well.  I am using Nate Washington as a WR2 of flex play and only see CJ as a potential flex-play as well.  I would stay away from Damian Williams until we see how he does when opposing defenses are able to plan for him a bit more.

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Patriots at Jets

The AFC East is still up for grabs.  Brady and the Pats have already lost more games than they did during the entirety of last season and after losing the the Giants when they didn’t have their two top offensive weapons (Bradshaw and Nicks), I am starting to think they might not be as invincible as they’ve been in years past. Thankfully for them, I think they match up well against the Jets. Welker has not really had too much issue being productive against the Jets in the past and usually Revis does not follow him all over the field. Teams have had success against the Pats this season by locking into man-to-man coverage on the less than elite receiving corp of New England and sending as much pressure as possible at Brady.  In order to get the win, Sanchez needs to play a perfect game and not give up any turnovers. If he can do that, there will be plenty of yardage and opportunities to get points on the board.  The Pats secondary has been just awful this season and still may prove to be their Achilles heel, much like it was for the Texans last year. Brady and the Pats need to lean on Law Firm and the running game in order to limit the time that their defense can be out there giving away the game.  I like the Patriots to win a high scoring affair after New York gets off to a slow start and is unable to catch up.  Welker and Brady are must-starts despite the less than appealing match-up but you should stay away from Deion Branch.  Upgrade Sanchez and the Jets receivers going against the NFL’s worst pass defense and feel free to use Shonn Greene in his typical RB2 role.

Saints at Falcons

Atlanta sits a game behind the Saints for first in the NFC  south and with the game being at home, I like Atlanta in this game.  They need to get back to running most of their offense through Michael Turner so that Roddy White and Julio Jones are able to see more man-to-man coverage and make big plays. Neither team has a scary defense that should make you concerned about giving them a start this week.  Atlanta needs to find a way to slow the Saints’ pass rush and and Turner is their best bet to do so.  Once they are able to bring the 8th man into the box, their receivers will be able to make the difference and get the win.  This game could easily go either way but Matt Ryan is almost a completely different quarterback at home and the Saints lack the depth at receiver to exploit Atlanta’s secondary. Start all your typical players with confidence as this is not likely going to be a low scoring affair but do NOT expect a repeat performance from Julio Jones, who I anticipate being a very hit or miss player for his fantasy owners.  I am considering him as a very good flex play for the rest of the season unless he is able to consistently hit double digit points.

Lions at Bears

Don’t worry I won’t make  a joke about Tigers here, but this game should make a HUGE difference later on as the NFC wild card spots start to get figured out.  I think we all expect the Packers to win the NFC North and I would be surprised if at least one more team from the division didn’t make the playoffs.  Detroit is up a game on the Bears at the moment and getting this win would be huge for their playoff hopes this season. Detroit’s front seven has slipped in recent weeks and their issues with stopping the run has caused them to have issues late in games when they had been able to be so effective early on this season. Unfortunately for them they face Matt Forte this week and he has been simply incredible for the Bears.  For the past few weeks the Bears’ offensive line has been playing much improved football and when Jay Cutler has time to throw, this Bears offense is very difficult to stop and the Lions’ secondary has not been playing that great either. This is a very difficult game to predict the outcome for however with the Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson connection being near impossible to stop.  I wouldn’t use a Lions receiver outside of Megatron unless I absolutely needed to and I also am downgrading the Lions’ running backs.  If Best can play, which I doubt, I wouldn’t think he would see his normal workload and Maurice Morris is not quite good enough to run wild against the Bears stout defense. I like Chicago to win this close game and Cutler has a relatively clean jersey at the end of the game.

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